Russia's seaborne crude oil shipments reached a new high, averaging 4.22 million barrels a day in the four weeks ending July 5. This surge in volume, the highest since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, comes despite Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian refineries. However, the increased export volume is overshadowed by a significant decline in oil prices.

The slump in crude prices is severely impacting Russia's revenue. The price of Urals crude has fallen back to levels seen before the US and Israel launched campaigns against Iran, indicating a broad market downturn. This price collapse is significantly reducing the financial inflows supporting the Kremlin's war efforts.

The combination of rising export volumes and falling prices presents a dual challenge for Russia. While physically moving more oil, the economic return is diminishing, raising concerns about the sustainability of its war funding and the broader impact on the Russian economy. Investors and global energy markets will be watching closely to see if this trend continues.