Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: June 30, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Global Markets Overview

US stocks ended the quarter higher with the S&P 500 poised for its best performance since 2020, defying geopolitical tensions and jitters surrounding artificial intelligence. The Nasdaq was on track for a nearly 20% gain, underscoring a strong start to the year for tech equities. Meanwhile, gold faced headwinds, heading for its worst quarter in over a decade as expectations of higher interest rates, fueled by the Iran war, ended its record rally. The yen also plunged to a 40-year low against the dollar, triggering alerts for potential Japanese government intervention. Emerging market bond sales hit a record $450 billion in the first half of 2026, with issuers taking advantage of the tightest spreads in nearly two decades.

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices fluctuated as the US and Iran prepared for talks, with reports of an agreement to halt attacks following a flare-up that saw a supertanker hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Russia, however, boosted crude oil exports to record levels, even as Moscow's oil earnings dropped to their lowest since March. U.S. natural gas futures picked up amid forecasts of the hottest summer weather so far, while Shell warned that global LNG supply could contract if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. India plans to reduce reliance on Middle following supply shocks.

Corporate & Dealmaking Activity

BP’s deputy chief executive, Carol Howle, plans to retire, marking the latest management change at the energy major. Comcast is spinning off NBCUniversal Sky into separate public companies, a move that follows its "amicable divorce" from NBCUniversal. Williams Cos. is reportedly nearing a $5.5 billion deal to acquire Momentum Midstream. In the luxury sector, Giorgio Armani SpA is working with BCG to strategize for growth as it prepares for a potential stake sale. CVC Capital Partners is set to acquire Irca from Advent.

Regulatory & Policy Shifts

The US Securities and Exchange Commission is signaling a potential rethink of ETF oversight following filings for prediction-market ETFs. The FAA is moving toward a mandate for technology to help pilots see nearby aircraft after a fatal crash . The European Union will limit tariff-free steel imports, applying a 50% duty above quotas to protect its steel industry from overcapacity, largely from Chinese imports. The UK's competition watchdog is targeting app store fees from Apple and Google.

Economic Indicators & Trends

German inflation cooled more than expected in June, influenced by falling global oil prices, a trend mirrored in France where inflation slowed to its lowest since March. Spanish inflation, however, remained above ECB targets. Kenya's inflation rate eased in June due to milder food and transport cost increases. The Philippines set a record wage hike for Manila workers. Bank of America agreed to pay $7.5 million to the SEC over reporting lapse allegations.

Financial Stability & Risk

A senior IMF official warned that AI debt issuance poses greater financial stability concerns than stock valuations. Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden cautioned that autonomous AI agents risk causing "market meltdowns" and may require tighter regulation. US equity financing costs could spill over to repo rates, potentially boosting short-term interest rates. The Brazilian real is heading for its worst month as a dollar rebound and shifting rate expectations prompt investors to unwind carry trades. Venezuela bonds are tumbling as investors price in a bleaker outlook following devastating earthquakes and debt restructuring challenges.

Technology & AI

Chip stocks are on track for their best quarter ever, driven by demand for AI equipment, though recent swings have introduced volatility. The National Institutes of Health announced the world's largest integrated health, containing over half a million genomes paired with clinical records and wearable tech data. Grindr's CEO is imposing AI across its operations, aiming for AI to write all code. Taiwan has escalated its probe into the smuggling of AI servers.

Geopolitical & Regional Developments

Oman is said to have proposed a fee plan for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz following US-Iran conflict. India plans to cut reliance on Middle after war shocks. Pakistan attacked Afghanistan, resulting in numerous civilian deaths, with both countries claiming conflicting casualty figures. Moscow reported being attacked by dozens drones. A bomb damaged Ecuador's mining agency that was probing illegal gold operations.

Other Market Developments

The Federal Aviation Administration is preparing to mandate the use of technology that would help pilots see nearby aircraft, following a deadly crash. The Supreme Court’s decisions on political spending limits and presidential power, 51, 65 have reshaped the regulatory and political landscape. Microsoft’s Irish hub is proving to be a profit powerhouse, driven in part by country-by-country EU reporting requirements. CME Group is launching new beef contracts as US cattle prices surge amid a shrinking herd. South Africa's Constitutional Court has dismissed Credit Suisse from a suit alleging rand-fixing.