Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: June 18, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Energy Markets and Geopolitics

Crude oil prices tumbled below $80 for the first time in three months as market participants reacted to the extension of a US-Iran ceasefire and the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While oil flows are surging through the vital waterway, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that volumes may only recover to 70% of pre-war levels as producers pivot to alternative export routes. This shifting supply landscape has prompted Saudi supertankers to set sail toward the Gulf of Oman, while Iraq prepares to boost exports from southern ports once the formal agreement is signed this Friday. Despite the easing of tensions, Bank of England policymakers and ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher caution that inflationary pressures will linger, as jet fuel prices remain elevated and shipping executives continue to harbor concerns regarding new transit fees potentially imposed by Tehran.

Monetary Policy and Global Rates

The U.S. Treasury market rebounded from a selloff following the debut of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who signaled a hawkish stance to combat persistent inflation. Although the Fed held rates steady at Warsh’s first meeting, the futures market now prices in at least one rate increase this year, reflecting a shift in policy expectations that has extended the dollar's rally toward late-March peaks. This environment of higher borrowing costs is weighing on global debt markets, even as the Middle East truce provides marginal relief. Meanwhile, South Korea’s central bank showed increased support for a hawkish pivot during its May meeting, and the ECB’s Philip Lane suggested the neutral interest rate range in the euro area has crept up to 2.5%.

Corporate Strategy and AI Spending

Big Tech firms are curtailing share buybacks as the exponential costs of the artificial intelligence arms race erode cash reserves, forcing companies to reconsider their spending strategies. While Amazon backed a $310mn round for Odyssey ML, other firms are attempting to minimize AI usage due to prohibitive operational expenses. The shift is already impacting IT consultancy Accenture, which saw shares fall 17% amid a worsening revenue outlook and concerns that AI will fundamentally disrupt its business model. Similarly, ASML Holding has flagged potential supply constraints for new ventures like Elon Musk’s Terafab, while Volkswagen is pushing to restructure its operations to mitigate the impact of rising geopolitical tensions and trade barriers.

Technology, Media, and Consumer Goods

Take-Two Interactive Software has scheduled preorders for Grand Theft Auto VI to begin on June 25, a critical release for the publisher’s fiscal outlook. In the consumer space, Mars is investing millions to reformulate M&M’s with natural colors, a complex and costly transition, while Kroger reported higher earnings buoyed by a 17% gain in online growth for its Central European divisions and stronger fuel sales. Conversely, Waymo is recalling 3,800 robotaxis following incidents where vehicles failed to recognize ramp closures, and Verizon has debuted a loyalty program to counter intense competition in the U.S. wireless carrier market.

Private Credit and Financial Infrastructure

Investors are increasingly demanding steep discounts for debt linked to software company Pellera Technologies, a sign of the broader caution permeating the private credit sector. With high withdrawals expected to last for more than a year, the risk of forced liquidations is rising, prompting D.E. Shaw to close its $5 billion Lithic fund to new capital. Meanwhile, Eolo SpA is in advanced talks with Apollo Global Management for a €500 million private debt package, and Deluxe is acquiring Celero Commerce for $625 million to bolster its payment processing capabilities for small and midsize businesses. Amid this, CME has sued the CFTC to block the listing of "perp" futures on the Kalshi exchange, arguing that the regulator overstepped its federal mandate.

Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt

Indonesia is naming Jeffrey Hendrik as CEO of its stock exchange in a bid to restore investor confidence in a market that has struggled as the world’s worst performer. Investors are also watching MSCI’s upcoming review of Argentina, which could trigger significant fund inflows if the nation regains its status in global indexes, while Vietnam saw its largest foreign inflows in nearly six years as regional tensions eased. In Colombia, Pimco made a $2 billion bet on local government debt ahead of presidential elections, though BHP took a $2.3bn writedown on its Jansen fertilizer project in Canada, marking a significant hit to its development portfolio. Finally, Hong Kong is launching China bond futures as part of Beijing’s broader strategy to promote global yuan usage and attract foreign institutional capital.