The US-Iran peace agreement has set off alarm bells in the shipping industry, which fears the deal clears the way for transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz after an initial 60-day grace period. The accord requires Iran to negotiate with Oman and Gulf states over the strait's "future administration and maritime services," language that executives worry mirrors the voluntary fund model used in the Strait of Malacca.

Philip Belcher of Intertanko and John Stawpert of the International Chamber of Shipping argue the strait's status as an international waterway must remain free of charges. They point to Iran's previous threats during the conflict - including demands for a $2mn bitcoin fee - as evidence of Tehran's willingness to use the waterway as leverage in negotiations with Washington and Gulf allies.

The strait handles roughly 20% of global petroleum traffic, making any fee structure potentially disruptive to worldwide energy markets. Despite the agreement, approximately 550 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, including over 200 tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels that are critical to global supply chains.

JD Vance recently stated that international waterways "should be free of tolls," while Oman has rejected tolling systems but discussed possible service fees. The negotiations ahead will test whether Iran can maintain its leverage over this critical chokepoint for global commerce.