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Argentina Eyes $5 Billion MSCI Upgrade as Funds Await June Decision

Bloomberg Markets •
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Argentina waits on MSCI’s June 23 report, which could lift the country from Standalone status and spark a surge of foreign capital. Analysts see a potential upgrade to emerging‑market classification that would add roughly $5 billion to local shares, a jump that rivals the country’s average daily volume of less than $60 million in 2024 for investors.

MSCI’s Classification Review will decide whether Argentina enters the frontier or emerging‑market tier, a shift that could raise its weight to 0.28 % in the global EM index and 4.1 % in Latin America. Morgan Stanley argues the move would unlock energy and financial stocks, sectors already driving the market’s recent rally for institutional investors in 2024 or next.

Argentina’s economy has rebounded since President Javier Milei took office, with inflation tamed and the fiscal deficit cut. The S&P Merval index now sits near a 17‑month peak in dollar terms, buoyed by higher oil prices and improved earnings from energy firms, all feeding renewed foreign inflows of up to the market in 2024 and by.

Despite positive signals, lingering capital controls keep some investors cautious. Balanz Capital’s Ezequiel Fernandez warns that unless hot‑money restrictions ease, Argentina may stay Standalone. The upcoming MSCI decision will therefore determine whether the country finally reenters global indices and whether Milei’s reforms translate into tangible investment gains for the long term in 2024 and beyond in.