Brent crude slipped to $79.61 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest level since early March, as traders priced in the US‑Iran ceasefire that promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US WTI fell 4% to $77.55, ending a week of sharp declines triggered by the agreement brokered by Qatar and Pakistan.

Analysts at MUFG said the deal cuts the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed prices to $126 in April. The prospect of restored Gulf exports eases inflation worries, but uncertainty remains over how quickly shipping can resume normal volumes. Mitsui OSK Lines warned shipowners may wait weeks to test the water.

UBS noted markets welcomed the news but flagged lingering concerns about sea‑mines and insurer confidence, which could delay traffic returning to pre‑war levels. Traders still expect a gradual ramp‑up, with some forecasting three months before the strait reaches historic throughput.

Goldman Sachs trimmed its Brent forecast, now targeting $80 per barrel in Q4 2026, $10 lower than earlier estimates. The bank assumes Persian Gulf shipments normalize by end‑July, accelerating the timeline for oil markets to stabilize.