Traders awaiting a U.S.-Iran meeting in Switzerland on Friday saw oil wobble Wednesday. A preliminary pact sparked hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen quickly. Brent crude hovered just under $80 a barrel, edging up less than 1%, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $76. Prices remain above pre‑war levels but volatile.

The International Energy Agency warned that even if the U.S.-Iran cease‑fire holds, Gulf output will recover only gradually. Mines must be cleared from key shipping lanes and supply chains need time to normalize. A surge in production combined with weaker global demand could create a glut as early as next year, pressuring prices further.

Equity markets stayed muted ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with S&P 500 futures indicating a flat open. Asian indexes split, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped under 1% while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6%. Gasoline fell a penny to $4.03 a gallon and diesel to $5.16, underscoring that oil’s trajectory now hinges on the cease‑fire outcome.

Investors will monitor the Friday signing for clues on shipment timelines and potential sanctions relief. A confirmed reopening of the Hormuz corridor could lift the risk premium that has kept crude near the $80 threshold, while any setback may reignite volatility. For now, the market balances optimism against the logistical hurdles of restoring full Gulf flow.