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Markets Calm as U.S.-Iran Deal Softens Oil Risk Premium

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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U.S. stock futures held steady as investors digested the emerging U.S.-Iran peace deal. Treasury yields paused after Monday’s slide, while Japanese bonds sold off following the Bank of Japan’s 31‑year‑high rate hike. Brent slipped 0.5% in early European trade, reflecting doubts over President Trump’s claim the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen on Friday.

Brent settled at $82.75 a barrel, while WTI fell to $80.52, keeping both benchmarks roughly 9% below their pre‑conflict peaks for the week. Goldman Sachs noted the agreement lets Iran levy maritime fees, contradicting Trump’s free‑flow narrative, and trimmed its fourth‑quarter Brent outlook to $85 from $90. The downgrade signals analysts expect a gradual return to normal Gulf exports.

U.S. futures for the S&P 500 were flat, the Dow edged up 0.2% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. In Asia, Shanghai fell 0.1%, Hong Kong dropped 1.7%, while the Nikkei 69,404.50 nudged higher after briefly topping 70,000. Markets appear to price in a measured easing of geopolitical risk rather than a swift surge in oil flows.

Investors will watch the implementation timeline in the Gulf and any further statements from Tehran, as the modest price retreat leaves oil still well above pre‑war levels. The current calm suggests risk‑on sentiment remains limited until concrete shipping data emerges for the market in the near term.