Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 13, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Geopolitics & Global Tensions

Tensions surrounding the Iran conflict remained high following President Trump's declaration that Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal was "unacceptable," immediately leading to mixed trading in U.S. stocks and a rise in Treasury yields. The conflict continues to disrupt energy flows, with crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz falling nearly 30% in the first quarter, prompting shipping giant Norden to plan for prolonged shutdowns. Amid this backdrop, a Chinese-owned supertanker was observed attempting to exit the Hormuz strait, directly testing the existing U.S. naval blockade just ahead of the high-stakes summit between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing.

The geopolitical climate also colored the U.S.-China summit, where beneath diplomatic niceties, deep mistrust persists, especially as China seeks to capitalize on the shift in global power balance accelerated by the war. While the leaders are expected to address Artificial Intelligence risks, sources suggest neither nation is willing to unilaterally slow the AI arms race, even as the U.S. future need for rare-earth minerals to rebuild depleted stockpiles may necessitate deeper cooperation with China, which currently dominates that supply chain following the Iran war. Furthermore, U.S. officials allege that Chinese firms are plotting secret arms sales to Iran, routing weapons through third countries to obscure origins.

In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu conducted a secret visit to the UAE to meet Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, signaling deepening ties between the two nations even as the broader conflict rages. Meanwhile, the U.S. military strategy remains under scrutiny, with General Caine’s silence on the Iran war raising questions about the military leadership’s approach during a divisive engagement. On the diplomatic front, Gaza negotiator Nickolay Mladenov urged Hamas to accept a rebuilding plan, contingent upon the militant group surrendering arms, a proposal they have yet to accept amid reported Israeli cease-fire violations.

Corporate Restructuring & Tech IPOs

The technology sector saw major restructuring efforts as Cisco announced a sweeping job cut initiative, planning to incur restructuring costs up to $1 billion to shift focus toward capturing greater Artificial Intelligence demand. The AI boom is fueling high-profile market debuts, with AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems planning to price its IPO at $185 per share, later guiding investors to expect pricing above the marketed range due to surging demand. In parallel, the investment surge into next-generation hardware continues, with chip startup Fractile raising $220 million from backers including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund to accelerate AI query processing.

The energy transition attracted significant capital as geothermal developer Fervo Energy successfully raised $1.9 billion in an upsized IPO, valuing the firm, which uses oil and gas drilling techniques, at approximately $7.7 billion. This debut followed reports that Fervo boosted its initial target to $1.82 billion. In contrast, established energy giants are seeing renewed analyst interest; BP Plc is attracting double the number of buy ratings after a year of poor performance, partly benefiting from the ongoing energy crisis that has driven U.S. power prices 61% faster than inflation.

Elsewhere, the consumer retail space experienced mixed fortunes; Brown-Forman rejected a $17bn takeover bid from Sazerac, a decision analysts suggested might be preferable to the alternatives facing the family-controlled entity. Appliance maker Whirlpool Corp. faces a looming $3 billion debt wall just as its shares trade near a 17-year low amid a deteriorating consumer demand outlook. In the automotive sector, Ford shares surged following a bullish call from Morgan Stanley that drew attention to the automaker’s energy storage division, while European rivals like Stellantis explore partnerships with Chinese firms such as BYD Co. to take over underutilized factories.

Financial Markets & Regulatory Scrutiny

Global fixed income markets reacted sharply to escalating Middle East tensions, which spurred inflation expectations and caused Japanese investors to dump the most U.S. sovereign debt since 2022. This selling pressure was so pronounced that investors secured 5% yields on 30-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007, as rising energy prices fueled inflation fears. Despite this volatility, Japanese 10-year bond auctions demonstrated firm demand at the new higher yields, even as the Finance Minister confirmed continued coordination with the U.S. on foreign exchange matters.

The regulatory focus intensified on the fast-growing private credit sector, with the UK regulator demanding that private credit groups share more data due to potential systemic risks following recent setbacks. This contrasts with statements from former SEC Chair Clayton, who stated he sees no excess leverage in the sector. Meanwhile, private equity appetite remains strong, evidenced by EQT agreeing to a £10.6bn takeover of Intertek. In corporate litigation, Skechers USA increased its offer to hedge funds challenging the $9.4 billion price of 3G Capital’s buyout after settlement talks stalled.

In the realm of alternative finance, trading platform Polymarket saw its volume decline for the first time in eight months, a setback occurring as its founder addressed operational missteps and its rival, Kalshi Inc., continued to gain ground. An examination of Polymarket revealed that numerous long-shot bets, including those related to the Iran war, defied odds, flagging insider trading concerns. Furthermore, hedge funds are mobilizing to purchase distressed litigation finance assets following a recent losing streak in that investment class.

Political & Economic Policy Developments

In the U.S., the political sphere saw the Senate failing once more to pass a War Powers resolution regarding the Iran conflict, though Republican opposition to continuing the military action grew. Domestically, the Trump administration is reportedly pushing the I.R.S. to identify undocumented immigrants as part of its immigration agenda, while simultaneously facing backlash over proposed cuts to pediatric cancer research. Separately, in a move benefiting tobacco interests, the administration sided with them over the FDA commissioner, who subsequently resigned in protest regarding flavored e-cigarette policies.

Across the Atlantic, ECB President Christine Lagarde called for a "make-or-break moment" for EU reform, urging leaders to strengthen the bloc’s foundations, while Chief Economist Philip Lane declined to signal whether a June rate hike would be proposed. However, Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides suggested that heightened inflation risks make a June rate increase likely. In the UK, the market reacted to political instability, with UK bonds recovering ground following a sharp selloff that saw bond vigilantes preparing for potential shifts under a new government.

In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp called a special legislative session to address redistricting maps for 2028 elections while also seeking to delay other election system changes that could create disarray in upcoming midterms. This political jockeying is occurring as GOP primary contender Rick Jackson has unexpectedly energized the governor's race. Meanwhile, in Brazil, political uncertainty is impacting the currency, as the Real slumped following reports linking candidate Flavio Bolsonaro to a failed bank CEO, adding to domestic political debates already heated over consumer goods like dish soap.