Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 1, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Commodity Markets

Global markets experienced significant volatility as optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation of the conflict in Iran battled against persistent supply disruptions, leading to mixed commodity reactions; US stock futures climbed on early optimism that military operations might conclude soon, while Asian equities and government bonds simultaneously rose on easing Mideast conflict hopes. However, the underlying inflationary threat remained palpable, with US crude oil inventories posting their sixth consecutive weekly build despite the war's impact, and traders who had taken a leveraged bet that oil would plunge from its war-driven highs were reportedly getting crushed on those positions as prices remained elevated. Energy costs continued to strain consumer budgets, evidenced by Colombia announcing it would raise domestic gasoline prices to manage a widening budget deficit, while French inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since August 2024 due to surging energy costs. Furthermore, the conflict’s impact on industrial supply chains was severe, causing Emirates Global Aluminium to halt production at its Al Taweelah smelter after it was struck by Iranian missiles and drones, and forcing a major Saudi chemical plant to shut down.

Fixed Income & Sovereign Debt

Sovereign bonds rallied worldwide as investors pivoted from inflation concerns to growth worries, anticipating that the Middle East conflict might derail global economic expansion, causing US Treasurys to extend gains on slowdown speculation. This shift in focus meant bond investors were suddenly concentrating more on growth risks than on inflation, leading to a renewed demand for safer debt instruments, as Citadel Securities observed that bonds were reasserting themselves as a hedge amid Middle East tensions. In the US, strategists at Barclays predicted instability in the Treasury market due to its explosive growth, suggesting it would require occasional “official interventions” to maintain functioning. Meanwhile, Japanese two-year government bond sales saw demand broadly in line with the 12-month average, even as caution persisted regarding a potential near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the auction. In emerging markets, Turkey restarted foreign-currency swap transactions with local banks for the first time in a year, aiming to counter a drawdown in reserves fueled by the broad selloff across the region amid the war's impact.

Corporate Dealmaking & IPOs

The public markets are bracing for what promises to be a generational wealth event, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX filing confidentially for an IPO, potentially raising between $40 billion and $80 billion in an offering that would rank among the largest ever as the company builds out its AI business ahead of rivals. In major M&A activity, Accor SA agreed to sell its stake in Essendi to a consortium including Blackstone Inc. for up to €975 million ($1.1 , while in the pharmaceutical sector, Biogen secured Apellis Pharmaceuticals for $5.6 billion to broaden its immunology and rare-disease portfolio. Separately, the first quarter saw a record number of megadeals agreed upon, with twenty-two transactions each valued above $10 billion announced in the preceding three months setting a high bar. In the semiconductor space, Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to buy back Apollo Global Management’s 49% stake in their joint Fab 34 chip manufacturing plant in Ireland, an asset Intel had previously sold two years prior to shore up finances.

Sector-Specific Dynamics: Tech & Pharma

The artificial intelligence investment theme continues to drive divergence among tech giants: while OpenAI tapped retail investors for $3 billion as part of a massive funding haul, its shares on the secondary market have reportedly fallen out of favor, with investors pivoting quickly to rival Anthropic. Executives were cautioned against misapplying AI, as Bain Capital’s David Gross stated that many CEOs treat it as merely a technology rollout rather than demanding a fundamental rethink of business operations a strategic error. In pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly won FDA approval for its oral weight-loss drug, Foundayo, setting the stage for a direct battle with Novo Nordisk in the increasingly lucrative obesity treatment market for non-injected options. Meanwhile, the toy industry felt disruption, as Hasbro Inc. took certain systems offline following the discovery of unauthorized network access on Saturday, prompting an ongoing breach inquiry by the company.

Global Regulatory & Policy Shifts

Regulatory scrutiny intensified across several jurisdictions; the Bank of England expressed concern that the rapid adoption of AI by financial institutions could escalate into a financial stability threat, while also citing fallout from the Iran war in its warnings. In the US, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a landmark challenge to President Trump’s executive order that sought to end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented persons and some temporary visitors a case that could disproportionately affect Asian legal immigrants. On the municipal front, New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin outlined a budget proposal designed to close a $6 billion deficit without raising taxes or cutting services, even as Mayor Zohran Mamdani faced a deadline to shut the troubled Rikers Island jail following two detainee deaths in the past week. In Africa, Nigerian lenders successfully raised 4.7 trillion naira, equivalent to $3.4 billion, to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s deadline for strengthening their balance sheets new capital requirements.

Market Performance & Retail Pressures

Despite broad optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict, which sent stocks surging and bonds gaining in a market wrap, underlying anxiety remains regarding sustained high oil prices threatening corporate earnings as noted by lingering risks. The US auto industry is sputtering, with General Motors reporting a nearly 10% sales fall, although GM plans to counter this by boosting heavy-duty truck production by running its Michigan plant six days a week starting in June to meet demand. In retail, investors holding Trade Desk Inc. stock, the S&P 500’s weakest performer, face a protracted wait for a rebound after the stock suffered a selloff leaving it down more than 80% over 15 months trapped in a selling vortex. Furthermore, the aviation sector is keenly feeling the pinch from high energy costs; Ryanair’s CEO warned that the UK is Europe’s most vulnerable market to jet fuel disruption and the carrier might cancel flights this summer if the Iran war continues to hit supplies according to the warning.

Financial Trading & Emerging Markets

Gold traders experienced an exceptional year, with desks globally generating a record $3.9 billion in 2025, driven by surging trading volumes and dramatic market dislocations providing ample profit opportunities. In Latin America, the Argentine peso has unexpectedly emerged as a 'haven' asset, thriving as the Iran war roils other global markets after more than a decade of consistent devaluation a reversal under President Milei. In Asia, India’s central bank tightened rules on non-deliverable FX contracts in an attempt to curb speculation against the rupee, though strategists warn the currency could still slide to a record 100 per dollar if the conflict prolongs despite the RBI’s moves. Conversely, Johannesburg’s benchmark stock index is tracking its worst monthly performance since 2008, hit by both the war sapping emerging-market asset demand and plunging precious metal prices a double blow.

Legal & Corporate Governance Issues

A Super Micro Computer Inc. co-founder, Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, pleaded not guilty in New York to charges alleging he helped divert billions of dollars worth of Nvidia-powered servers to China in a smuggling case, while in a separate matter, Snap Inc.’s activist shareholders are demonstrating a new form of influence given that the tech group's traded shares carry zero votes leaving owners voiceless. In Europe, a Belgian court ordered Poland and Romania to pay Pfizer €1.9 billion ($2.2 for refusing delivery of Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic, a significant liability win for the pharmaceutical giant. Meanwhile, the UK’s competition watchdog is probing Microsoft over its business software, assessing whether the US tech giant warrants 'strategic market status' as financial regulators continue to warn about risks associated with AI use as stressed by the Bank of England.