Global markets remain on edge despite a recent stock surge, with Brent crude futures trading around $85 per barrel compared to $70 before the conflict. The war in Iran has forced investors to unwind popular trades and reassess the economic outlook. Trading volumes in Asian markets have remained muted, suggesting limited conviction in the current rally.

Earnings season will soon reveal the war's impact on corporate profits, with analysts warning that consensus earnings figures haven't fully priced in the risks. Lombard Odier's Homin Lee notes that if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz don't recover, downward revisions to earnings estimates could accelerate sharply. The conflict has erased approximately $14 trillion in global stock value since it began.

Investors are grappling with multiple potential catalysts that could derail any rebound, from private credit concerns to the possibility of prolonged higher energy prices. The war represents an exogenous geopolitical shock that differs fundamentally from previous market disruptions like Trump's tariffs. With emerging markets particularly vulnerable due to their oil import dependence, the path forward remains uncertain as markets await clearer signals about the conflict's duration and economic impact.