Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 1, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Geopolitics & Energy Markets Roiled by Middle East Conflict

Global markets showed signs of cautious optimism as President Trump signaled a desire to wind down the military campaign against Iran, causing Brent crude to briefly dip below $100 a barrel and sparking a massive rally in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 seeing its best day of the year despite a poor quarterly performance. However, lingering risks kept euphoria in check, as higher-for-longer oil prices threaten corporate earnings, following the ongoing conflict which has already caused Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to slump by 50% in March due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. The disruption has profound global effects, with Emirates Global Aluminium halting its Al Taweelah smelter following strikes by Iranian missiles and drones, while the UAE simultaneously imposed entry restrictions on Iranian nationals after facing aggression from the Islamic republic.

The conflict’s economic fallout continues to propagate across commodity chains, as rising oil costs are straining national budgets, prompting Colombia to announce an increase in domestic gasoline prices to manage its widening deficit, even as its central bank hiked rates following a policy meeting walkout by the finance minister. In the energy sector, China’s state-owned giants are tempering expansion plans due to market turbulence, while the war has unexpectedly provided a financial boon to Russia, generating billions in additional revenue from crude, gas, and aluminum. Furthermore, the disruption to refining hubs has upended soft commodities, with global sugar prices seeing a rebound as the war squeezes supplies from a key refining center.

The escalating tensions are also impacting industrial and transport sectors worldwide. U.S. manufacturing expanded in March at its fastest pace since 2022, but this growth was accompanied by surging input costs tied to the Iran war, mirroring strain in the UK where factories reported the worst supply chain stress since 2022. In aviation, Dubai billionaire Gediminas Ziemelis warned that oil spikes risk bankrupting airlines, recalling an environment of grounded planes and plummeting demand, while BYD Co. saw its export sales jump 65% in March as high oil prices boosted global demand for electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the US is seeking to diversify critical mineral supply chains, securing an agreement with Brazil that involves a $565 million loan to a mining group that includes specific offtake controls managed by the US International Development Finance Corporation.

Tech, Finance, and Corporate Mergers

In the technology financing sphere, investor sentiment has rapidly shifted away from OpenAI, whose secondary market shares have become difficult to unload, favoring its competitor, Anthropic, while retail investors are now chasing pre-IPO exposure by pushing OpenAI stakes into Cathie Wood’s Ark ETFs. Meanwhile, semiconductor giant Intel is executing a $14.2 billion deal to buy back Apollo Global Management’s 49% stake in its Irish Fab 34 plant, reclaiming full ownership two years after selling the stake to shore up its finances. Elsewhere, asset managers are expanding digital footprints, with Franklin Templeton agreeing to acquire a crypto spinoff to offer institutional-grade digital asset strategies, and credit intelligence firm 9fin achieving a $1.3 billion valuation in fresh funding.

Corporate dealmaking remains active despite geopolitical headwinds, with the first quarter marking the strongest start ever for large M&A deals. In Europe, KKR is planning a $3.2 billion tender offer for the Japanese firm Taiyo Holdings, while Unilever is combining its food business with McCormick in a deal that will create a $66 billion food giant. Financial institutions are also managing risk transfer amid the conflict; BBVA SA is reportedly structuring a significant risk transfer tied to a portfolio of mortgages, and Amazon fueled the best-ever quarter for corporate debt sales in EMEA, even amid market disruption. In the UK, digital bank Monzo is pulling out of the US market to concentrate resources on its core European operations, while in the Premier League, Chelsea FC posted record losses of £491 million despite increased revenues under its ownership by Todd Boehly and Clearlake.

US Political & Regulatory Developments

President Trump made an unprecedented appearance at the Supreme Court to argue a case concerning the constitutionality of his executive order that would end birthright citizenship for certain children of foreign visitors. This legal battle occurs as the US military presence in the Middle East faces scrutiny, with reports suggesting that the practice of housing troops in hotels may violate the laws of war, a measure implemented to shield personnel from Iranian missile attacks. In domestic economic policy, U.S. mortgage rates climbed for a fourth consecutive week to a seven-month high of 6.57%, potentially complicating the housing market, which some analysts argue is suffering from outdated policy frameworks.

Asia & Emerging Markets

Emerging-market stocks registered their worst monthly decline since March 2020, heavily impacted by the Middle East conflict and subsequent shipping chaos, leading to increased credit risk premiums across Asia where default insurance costs are set for their largest monthly spike since 2023. India’s financial authorities are under pressure as the rupee continues to slide, with the Reserve Bank of India’s recent forex curbs raising the specter of further rate hikes, even as the country saw its second-highest month ever for initial public offering filings in March. South Korea’s massive $1 trillion pension fund announced plans to aggressively use its voting power to enforce corporate governance improvements lagging behind global standards, while in Japan, duty-free sales showed a tentative rebound in March, suggesting a slight easing of the slump caused by reduced Chinese tourist spending.