Dubai-based aviation tycoon Gediminas Ziemelis warns that the Middle East conflict could trigger widespread airline bankruptcies, citing soaring fuel costs and disrupted routes. His firm, Avia Solutions Group, faces a $50,000 per-flight insurance premium hike, forcing operational adjustments. With oil prices up 50% to $100 a barrel, airlines struggle to absorb expenses, risking financial collapse if the crisis persists beyond a month. Avia’s 145 jets are being repositioned from Europe to Asia and Brazil to circumvent conflict zones, while Middle Eastern carriers like Qatar Airways and flydubai cancel flights and cut costs.

The pandemic-era rebound in aviation profits now faces acute pressure as Fitch Ratings downgrades Avia’s outlook, projecting liquidity strains by 2026. Ziemelis, worth $1.7 billion, remains committed to Dubai expansion despite the turmoil, emphasizing adaptability in volatile markets.