Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Middle East Conflict and Oil Markets
Oil prices bloomberg.com remained volatile as the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude jumping as much as 13% to above $82 a barrel. Indian refiners bloomberg.com scrambled to secure alternative Russian oil supplies as flows through the critical waterway all but stopped. Fuel prices bloomberg.com jumped alongside crude, with diesel surging more than oil as the widening war in the Middle East threatened Persian Gulf refinery exports. Analysts bloomberg.com warned that the longer the shooting war continues, the greater the risk of an outright supply shock, though some experts like Mukesh Sahdev bloomberg.com predicted oil prices would unlikely rise above $100 per barrel given the conflict's likely short duration.
Global Market Reactions
Indian stocks bloomberg.com erased recent gains on US trade deal optimism as Middle East conflict dented investor sentiment, tracking declines across most Asian peers. Asia FX investing.com fell sharply as Middle East strikes spurred an oil surge, with the South Korean won leading losses. Emerging market currencies bloomberg.com and stocks slumped in Asia trading as worries over the Iran conflict and surging oil prices weighed on sentiment for risky assets. Treasuries bloomberg.com edged lower across the curve as reports of conciliatory messages from both the US and Iran damped demand for haven assets, though the US dollar wsj.com strengthened on liquidity demand amid the Middle East conflict.
Regional Market Impacts
Japan stocks bloomberg.com slid in Tokyo after US-Israeli strikes stoked caution across sectors from banks to autos, though a rise in oil prices boosted shares of refiners. Australian LNG shares bloomberg.com jumped after tankers stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz, hampering about a fifth of global supply and threatening to raise prices of the fuel. Aluminum prices bloomberg.com climbed on concerns that critical supply routes for Middle Eastern producers will be disrupted by conflict in a region responsible for a significant chunk of global output. European natural gas prices bloomberg.com could more than double if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for one month, according to Goldman Sachs.
China and Asian Markets
Chinese automakers wsj.com broadly recorded a sharp drop in sales in February as demand in the world's largest auto industry waned during the Lunar New Year month. Geely bloomberg.com extended its lead over BYD with the biggest sales gap since 2022, piling pressure on the latter to beef up its lineup and reignite waning demand for electric vehicles. The Hang Seng Tech Index bloomberg.com slipped beneath a crucial support line that suggests more selloffs ahead given geopolitical tensions and lingering earnings worries. China's five-year plan bloomberg.com will target fixes to commodities supply, with leaders launching a pivotal plan this week that will help shape global commodities markets through the end of the decade.
Commodity and Currency Effects
Soybean oil bloomberg.com jumped to the highest level in more than two years, tracking crude prices higher after strikes by the US and Israel on Iran over the weekend. Gold prices investing.com jumped 2% amid the widening US-Israel conflict with Iran, as war in the Middle East rattled markets and drove investors to safer assets. The Australian dollar bloomberg.com has scope to extend its advance versus the greenback, strategists say, even as speculative bullish bets on the currency stay near the highest level in more than eight years. Indonesia's central bank bloomberg.com said it is intervening in the foreign-exchange markets as the US-Israeli war sapped sentiment for the currency.
US Policy and Market Sentiment
President Trump bloomberg.com announced the first US fatalities of Iran operations, with three service members killed and five seriously wounded during operations against the Islamic Republic. The US-UK military agreement bloomberg.com allowed the US to use British military bases for the specific purpose of destroying Iranian missile depots. Former US diplomat Wendy Sherman bloomberg.com said Iran has many layers and succession plans, arguing the regime will not splinter easily despite the conflict. Economists bloomberg.com are assessing the hit from the Mideast war, modeling impacts on various economies including China, which is seen among the potential losers.
Technology and Corporate News
Netflix ft.com could be streaming media's most victorious loser, with analysts suggesting buying Warner Bros. Discovery would have cost the streaming giant financial flexibility. Paramount bloomberg.com Skydance Corp.'s $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery will strain its credit rating, even if the combined company could ultimately cut its debt. European stocks bloomberg.com rose, achieving their longest monthly winning streak since 2013 and showcasing the region's growing appeal as investors seek alternatives to the US. Societe Generale bloomberg.com appointed Selina Cheung as head of equity capital markets in Asia Pacific as the French lender looks to bolster its business advising on share sales.
Financial Sector Developments
Bradesco bloomberg.com and dental insurer Odontoprev are combining their health-care assets to create one of Brazil's largest integrated medical groups, serving more than 13 million beneficiaries. First Brands Group bloomberg.com has four potential buyers for its remaining auto-parts factories under a proposal aimed at preserving thousands of jobs as the bankruptcy of its former parent company unfolds. Houston bloomberg.com is counting on municipal bond investors to help fund a multibillion-dollar convention center expansion crucial to boosting downtown economic activity. Magellan Financial investing.com will acquire Barrenjoey for $1.1 billion in stock, expanding its Australian financial services footprint.
Market Strategy and Investment
BNP Paribas bloomberg.com said traders are looking to commodity markets for cues as to the duration of the conflict following US and Israeli strikes on Iran. UBS investing.com downgraded US tech to neutral, preferring China and Europe as investment destinations given current market conditions. Zscaler bloomberg.com CEO Jay Chaudhry said AI represents an opportunity, not a threat, for the company's business as it navigates the evolving cybersecurity landscape. Blue Owl wsj.com faces challenges saving its position as cracks appear in the private-credit behemoth built on software, AI, and individual investor bets.