The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian officials has triggered a volatile response in global oil markets, with Brent crude spiking 12.5% before stabilizing. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil exports. While Iran claims no intent to block shipping lanes, recent attacks on vessels and retaliatory strikes have heightened fears of supply disruptions.

Javier Blas notes this isn’t a full-blown shock yet, but sustained warfare risks pushing prices higher and destabilizing markets. Saudi Aramco’s 16% weight in the Saudi benchmark index surged despite broader market declines, signaling investor bets on oil price resilience.