The Iran war is draining the world's oil buffer at unprecedented speed. Morgan Stanley estimates global stockpiles dropped by about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25 — far exceeding the previous peak for quarterly drawdowns in International Energy Agency data. Crude accounts for nearly 60% of the decline, with refined fuels making up the rest.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s head of global commodities research warns that OECD inventories could hit operational stress levels early next month if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, reaching critical floors by September. The most immediate pressure points are in fuel-dependent Asian economies—particularly Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines—where supplies could reach critical levels within a month. US crude stocks have declined for four consecutive weeks, with distillate inventories at their lowest since 2005.

Chevron Corp.'s chief financial officer told Bloomberg TV on May 1 that much of the world's inventory and spare capacity has already been depleted. Import-dependent countries may start facing critical shortages as early as June-July. European jet-fuel stocks are also depleting fast just as summer vacations approach, with some analysts predicting critical levels by June. Global visible oil stocks are already close to their lowest since 2018.