Oil markets edge toward a tipping point as the Strait of Hormuz blockade depletes global reserves. Traders now price a conflict, after President Trump warned the blockade could last months. Analysts forecast critical lows by end‑May, sparking rapid price surges. Gunvor’s Frederic Lasserre warns that a June trigger could halt economies global recession.

Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects projects that if hostilities last through June, stockpiles will vanish, pushing Brent to $150‑$200 a barrel. Recent data shows U.S. gasoline inventories fell to 222 million barrels, the lowest in over a decade, and the strategic reserve has released 1 million barrels daily to blunt shocks for global markets and investors watch.

RBC’s Helima Croft notes that U.S. messaging has underplayed the conflict’s duration, and if the blockade persists through May, prices could eclipse 2022 highs just below $140. As summer demand peaks, the narrowing buffer forces refineries to shift output, tightening jet and diesel supplies and amplifying price volatility across the supply chain for investors and.

Market participants now demand sharper inventory data as the summer peak approaches. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest figures underline a critical threshold: gasoline stocks below 210 million barrels signal a looming squeeze. With strategic releases tapering, the market faces a tight window where continued supply disruptions could lock in a new, higher price ceiling for