Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, tightening global supply. A record drawdown of strategic reserves in the US, Europe and Asia, along with commercial inventories, has kept the shock from spiralling. Yet the buffer is shrinking fast.

Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha warned that inventories are depleting at up to 80 million barrels a week, potentially hitting a precarious level later this month. JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva added that the illusion of plenty could collapse, with operational stress and broader system instability looming if the passage stays blocked.

Kaneva maps inventory layers like an onion: tanker cargoes, commercial depots, then government reserves. At the fourth layer, higher prices begin to ration oil, a phenomenon she calls “demand destruction.” The fifth layer, she warns, could trigger a non‑linear price spike, pushing Brent to $150 a barrel.

If the Strait stays closed, the global market risks a sharp sell‑off in energy stocks, while oil‑dependent sectors could face higher input costs. Barclays estimates a quick erosion of global inventories could expose a fragile supply chain, tightening margins for refining and transportation firms alike.