April saw global oil inventories tumble at an unprecedented rate as fighting in the Middle East choked supply routes. S&P Global Energy estimates crude stockpiles fell by almost 200 million barrels, roughly 6.6 million barrels a day, while demand slipped by about 5 million barrels daily – the steepest decline since the pandemic.

Strained flows through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged infrastructure have already pushed Brent crude above $110 a barrel, though it slipped 4 % on Tuesday after a brief US‑Iran ceasefire held. Goldman Sachs warns global refined‑product supplies now cover only 45 days’ supply, with jet fuel in northern Europe hitting six‑year lows and US gasoline inventories poised for a summer record trough.

Overall inventories sit near 4 billion barrels, but most serve ongoing operations, limiting how much can be tapped quickly. With Asia absorbing the bulk of the drawdown and US reserves still above last year’s levels, analysts fear a sharp US stock decline could trigger broader market alarm. The coming weeks will test whether supply shortages translate into sustained price spikes.

Investors should watch inventory data from the International Energy Agency, as any further erosion could force refiners to curtail runs, tightening margins. Policy makers in Europe and Asia are already contemplating strategic releases to cushion the market, underscoring how geopolitical risk is reshaping the global oil supply chain.