Here’s how to read the Federal Reserve’s economic projections like a pro. Sept. 16, 2026 Updated 3:12 p.m. ET Federal Reserve officials released a fresh set of economic projections alongside their decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday, signaling that another increase could happen this year.

When the Fed last released quarterly economic projections, in June, officials were roughly split about the need to raise rates this year. Since then, inflation has showed only minimal progress toward the central bank’s 2 percent target, growth has remained solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed stable. This backdrop informed the Fed’s decision to finally take action, resulting in a quarter-point move on Wednesday that lifted rates to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent. What investors will focus on now is how many more increases to expect from. The Fed chairman, Kevin M. Warsh, has made overhauling the Fed’s communications strategy a top priority of his tenure, which began in May.

Part of that includes the dot plot, a forecasting tool that shows where policymakers see not only rates but also growth, unemployment and inflation going in the current year and beyond. Mr. Warsh has long criticized the dot plot, arguing that forecasts like these make it harder for the central bank to change course if the economic backdrop shifts. In June, Mr. Warsh declined to submit his own projections. Other officials still see value in the dot plot, however, meaning it is still an important tool at policymakers’ disposal to shape expectations about the future. Here’s what changed in the forecasts on Wednesday and how to interpret those updates.

The dot plot, decoded. When the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus most closely on one part: the dot plot. It shows Fed policymakers’ estimates for interest rates through 2029 and beyond. The forecasts are represented by dots arranged along a vertical scale — one dot for each of the Fed’s 19 officials. While only 12 cast a vote at each meeting, all 19 can submit forecasts for rates and the economic outlook over the short and long terms. Economists closely watch how the dots shift for hints about where policy is heading. They fixate on the middle, or median, dot. It is regularly cited as the clearest estimate of where the Fed sees rates going over a given period. The forecasts should be viewed cautiously. The dot plot does not represent a preset plan for policy, but rather a compilation of officials’ projections at a moment in time. It can be a helpful communications device. But when the economic outlook is uncertain, it can complicate the Fed’s message.