Last updated: September 12, 2026, 6:43 AM ET
Fed Policy & Rates
Wall Street is bracing for a rate hike next week after August's Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected, with the odds of a quarter-point increase at the Federal Reserve's meeting surging to 90 percent. The inflation report has kept pressure on the Fed to act, and the central bank now appears poised to raise interest rates for the first time in years. Inflation remained stubbornly elevated at 3.4% in August, capping a week of surging oil prices that has complicated the policy outlook. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh faces mounting pressure to raise rates as price pressures persist. A separate key inflation report is being closely watched by traders for further clues on the trajectory of monetary policy.
Treasuries & the Bond Market
The $32 trillion US bond market ended a bruising week with yields at multiyear highs, as investors grew more convinced the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week to address sticky inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield is now nearing 5%, a level that threatens to derail the stock rally and raise borrowing costs across the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $6 billion buying operation proved insufficient to stem the recent surge in borrowing costs, investors warned. Bessent's intervention in the yen has made an impact, but US bond yields continue climbing, raising questions about whether he is winning the wrong battle in markets. As the bond rout deepens, pressure is growing on Bessent to restore calm. Global bond markets showed signs of stabilising after a sharp sell-off, helped by a decline in oil prices, though German borrowing costs hit their highest level since 2009. Investors who loaded up on European and UK government bonds in recent months are now experiencing buyers' regret, according to Bank of America. For those seeking to understand the turmoil, a guide to bond markets explains why yields rise when prices fall. Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund could sell as much as $62 billion of US Treasuries without a formal revamp of its asset-allocation policy, according to analysts at Banco Santander. UBS Group AG is buying back $7.9 billion of old Credit Suisse bonds, its biggest move yet to shrink the debt load it inherited when taking over its crosstown rival.
Equities & Wall Street Sentiment
US stocks rallied as retreating oil prices offered relief following the inflation report, with traders boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates next week. The major indexes snapped a four-session losing streak as an interruption to the torrid run in oil prices offset the reading of higher consumer inflation. Wall Street cheered the clarity on the Fed outlook, even if it means higher rates, after Friday's warm CPI report took much of the guesswork out of next week's decision. Equity bulls have been eyeing the 8,000 milestone for the S&P 500 for weeks, but getting there has proven difficult. Oil prices surged above $105 as Middle East fighting escalated, sending stocks falling for a fourth consecutive session as investors worried about energy supplies and inflation. The AI-obsessed Wall Street has been pouring billions into inflation-era bets amid a defiant bond market and oil firmly above $100. The dollar oscillated Friday after the key inflation gauge rose more than expected, pushing traders to add to rate-hike bets. Consumer sentiment has turned notably sour, with even Republicans souring on the economy, marking the first interesting sentiment report in a long time.
Oil, Energy & Geopolitics
Oil prices posted a big weekly gain as traders assessed growing risks to Middle East crude exports, though prices slipped back Friday after a string of gains. Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz following attacks, a move likely to put further momentum behind fast-rising oil prices. The news briefly pushed the price of oil to $110 a barrel over heightened fears of widening clashes in the Middle East. Houthi militants seized a key Red Sea island in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a choke point for trade, while Saudi Arabia announced it had shut down a critical oil pipeline after a drone attack launched from Iraq. The Houthis' lightning offensive against Saudi-backed forces has cemented the Yemeni rebels' control over a vital shipping artery and roiled energy markets. Ship operators already faced severe risks navigating the region, and now the danger is higher as Houthi militias assert control in the Red Sea. The US has limited tanker transit times through the Strait of Hormuz to two specified times daily following an increase in Iranian attacks. Diesel prices have jumped above $6 a gallon, adding to inflation pressure as fears mount that fighting in the Middle East could further threaten oil supplies. As diesel crosses $6, so does the risk that soaring energy costs will start hurting far beyond gas pumps. Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie said average US gasoline prices will almost certainly hit $5 a gallon before the midterm elections, citing a toxic combination of scarcity and currency debasement. Higher oil prices could force the ECB to raise rates further if crude stays near $100, warned Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher, who said the risk of elevated inflation is higher than it was a few months ago. In corporate energy news, Abu Dhabi's ADNOC has inked partnerships with German energy and industry groups as part of the UAE's $46.5 billion investment push. Shell's upstream boss took advantage of a valuation uplift to sell shares, with the oil major's acquisition of ARC Resources expected to improve free cash flow from next year. The UK has delayed its Jackdaw gasfield decision until after a by-election in Starmer's seat, drawing criticism from Tories and Greens. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's new restrictions on data center development threaten a key source of demand growth for shale gas producers in the state, according to an industry trade group. For energy and utilities insights, a market roundup covers BPX, Tenaga Nasional, Saudi Aramco and more.
Inflation & the Consumer
Inflation came in hot, with the CPI report showing accelerating core prices that led traders to boost rate-hike bets, while consumer sentiment fell and Iran-backed Houthis took control of an oil chokepoint. Ground beef prices edged higher in August, signaling little progress in the Trump administration's offensive against record costs with only two months left until midterm elections. Grocery-store chain Kroger cut its sales view, citing Cyclospora concerns and pressured shoppers, and now expects annual same-store sales to increase by 0.2% to 0.8%, compared with its previous projection of 1% to 2% growth. AARP projects the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%, which if it holds would be the largest cost-of-living adjustment since 2023. For investors in or near retirement, TIPs can help get inflation under control. A look at Gen Z finances examines how Andy Burnham has acknowledged that the millstone of student debt is a problem.
AI, Technology & Innovation
Wall Street's AI obsession is reshaping capital markets, with US convertible bond sales reaching their highest annual total on record as companies look to fund heavy artificial intelligence-related spending. The AI race has its creators fearing human extinction, as advances in autonomous agents and bitter rivalry between Anthropic and OpenAI have pushed once-fringe fears into the mainstream. Some researchers now demand a global pause on AI development, arguing we can no longer pretend the technology is safe. A breakthrough on a Millennium Prize math problem is being cited as proof of AI's progress and its terrifying acceleration. Governments are promising a light-touch regulatory agenda amid growing threats, even as the existential risks multiply. Economist Joseph Stiglitz argues that a slow AI rollout will disappoint investors, while a fast one risks undermining the industry's own foundations, but managed carefully the technology could benefit us all. Chinese AI firms tried to clone US AI models, according to a morning risk report that also covered crypto scam victims and ABC's Jimmy Kimmel taking aim at the FCC. South Korea has tightened its spy laws to protect chip secrets, broadening its espionage legislation for the first time in more than seven decades. UK regulators have launched a probe into KPMG over audits for collapsed oil group Prax, with the Big Four accountant, PKF Littlejohn and an unnamed individual facing an FRC investigation. A cluster of Polymarket accounts won big on companies audited by KPMG, findings that come after The Wall Street Journal reported a KPMG employee is under investigation for alleged insider trading. A federal judge is poised to dismiss a lawsuit challenging Trump's library, saying the president's claim of immunity could dispose of the entire case involving the library to be built in Miami.
Corporate Deals & Capital Markets
KKR & Co. finalized a $2.1 billion loan to help fund its pending acquisition of medical-device maker Integer Holdings Corp. after securing more-favorable terms. ICG Plc is targeting €15 billion ($17.4 billion) for its sixth European direct lending fund as the biggest private-credit managers continue to attract the bulk of new institutional money. Belron's planned IPO could revive Europe's listings market, as the windshield repair giant is the sort of business that might help investors warm up to more deals. Larry Ellison plans to sell up to $7.5 billion worth of Oracle stock, offloading as many as 50 million shares as the company posts higher revenue from data centers but faces investor fears it is overcommitted to AI. The Lindsell Train Investment Trust has offered a tender offer for 20% of shares in a bid to address its persistently wide discount and boost a weak share price. Thames Water is facing a £2 billion bill for finance costs and advisers' fees as the embattled UK utility confronts mounting costs while the government debates moving ahead with temporary nationalisation. South East Water is reevaluating its debt plans after initial talks with bond investors stalled over pricing. St James's Place is looking to reassure advisers following departures, with the wealth manager set to scrutinise growth plans and aim to boost adviser morale. MFS administrator Nimish Patel of Coots & Boots has been discharged as joint administrator of an entity in the collapsed property lender's empire amid creditor pressure. France's debt interest bill is set to jump 25% this year, with finance minister Roland Lescure also downgrading the GDP growth forecast for 2026.
Regulation, Enforcement & Legal
A unit of China's online retailer JD.com Inc. agreed to pay $500,000 to settle SEC claims that it made a series of "sham transactions" to meet revenue targets. A former trader at IFS Securities Inc. was ordered to serve more than 16 years in prison for unauthorized bond trades in 2019 that led to $30 million in losses and bankrupted the Chicago broker-dealer. Vuk Vukovic, founder of New York hedge fund Oraclum Capital LLC, was charged with fraud by federal prosecutors for lying to investors about his fund's performance. Former Goodwin lawyer Richard Bloomfield pleaded not guilty to insider trading charges, facing five counts relating to the acquisition of maternity-wear company Seraphine Group. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to speed up whistleblower payouts, automatically awarding successful tipsters 30% of any enforcement penalties collected if a tipster is due to receive $5 million or less. India's markets regulator proposed an overhaul of the closing auction session after sharp swings and concentrated derivatives activity around the new mechanism raised concerns among market participants. A court struck down a Trump administration order keeping a Michigan coal plant open, finding the Energy Department exceeded its authority and complicating the president's plan to revive the industry. JPMorgan cut off lending to Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund Situational Awareness after AI losses, with the fund previously shedding billions of dollars during a sell-off.
Prediction Markets & New Platforms
Prediction markets have taken off in popularity, drawing billions of dollars in trades, with some states attempting to ban them. Minnesota became the first to pass a law banning Kalshi and Polymarket, and a lawsuit filed by a federal agency may set a precedent on who gets to regulate them. Kalshi is looking to expand its trading universe, with perpetual futures surging in popularity on the platform known for prediction markets. Polymarket has named its first CFO, while Macy's bets on pricier products. But not everyone is a fan: the founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors warns that prediction markets are a bad idea, arguing that not only are the odds stacked against those who place bets, but insiders are also tilting the scales.
Global Trade & Emerging Markets
Trade between India and China has nearly doubled in five years, leaving New Delhi with a widening deficit and a difficult choice over how to build its industrial future. European investment in Latin American stocks has hit a 15-year peak, as investors seeking shelter from geopolitical turmoil put the outflows of recent years into reverse. Government-backed payments networks such as UPI and Pix are exploring link-ups with central banks overseas as booming BRICS payments systems seek more cross-border connections. The leaders of China, Russia, India and other nations in the BRICS club gather in New Delhi this weekend, but wars and soaring energy prices divide them. China sees the BRICS group as a vehicle for challenging American power, while India wants to keep the group broad enough to avoid choosing sides. Vietnam's Vin Fast Auto Ltd. is undergoing a leadership transition, with chairman Pham Nhat Quan Anh taking over as global CEO, replacing his father and billionaire founder Pham Nhat Vuong. The US Treasury's sanctions on additional Iranian airlines threaten permanent damage to an already badly bruised industry, all but severing the country's limited air connections to the rest of the world. In Canada, talks between the auto workers' union and Stellantis have hit an impasse over the company's plans for an Ontario factory that has been idle for two years.
UK Economy & Housing
The UK economy unexpectedly grew 0.4% in July, boosted by an AI surge, in a resilient start to the third quarter that comes as surging oil prices reignite inflation fears. A military jet's flight plan triggered the UK's latest air traffic meltdown, sparking turmoil that grounded thousands of planes this week. Manchester has asserted its position as a cultural, economic and political powerhouse and now has the highest property price growth of any UK city, though its shifting homebuyer profile raises questions about who benefits. The Financial Times is seeking buy-to-let landlord and tenant views following recent legislative changes.
Funds, Personnel & Strategy
Royal Bank of Canada has hired Bank of America's Dan Mills as a managing director and head of rates sales in Canada, according to a spokesperson. Atreides, the tech-focused investment firm set up by former Fidelity star stock picker Gavin Baker, has hired Kelly Granat, the co-CIO of Lone Pine. Jupiter Asset Management's Mark Nash is betting on long-dated bonds, arguing markets are overestimating sovereign debt risks and that the bonds will rebound from their recent selloff. Stockpickers this week discuss Rosebank Industries, Sigma Roc and Ashmore, weighing which companies to buy, sell or hold. Tesla shares have suffered a slow summer after the SpaceX IPO and an earnings rout, with the electric vehicle giant down 89% as it now has to share its special sauce after offering the only public market bet on Elon Musk for a decade and a half. Lululemon's newest bear sees more pain ahead after an 81% rout, as the athletic wear company cedes market share to rivals and suffers deepening sales declines, according to BMO Capital Markets. PayPal CEO Enrique Lores is pursuing a solo strategy to fix the payments giant, with a $50 billion buyout stalled but a $25 million bonus possible if Wall Street buys into his transformation plans. Xbox chief Asha Sharma is pursuing radical transparency to turn the business around, bringing brutal honesty to fixing a Microsoft mess. Trading screens for smiles is the new battle for consumer loyalty, as the human touch wins loyalty from Aritzia to McDonald's. A crypto investor's sale of a £190 million London mansion is drawing attention, as Leon Li's ownership of the Regent's Park home had remained obscured despite the UK's push for transparency.
Market Commentary & Analysis
An opinion piece argues that don't tax the unicorns, citing new research showing how much tax policy matters to innovation. Another piece contends that climate investment is economic investment, arguing that fighting poverty and funding climate action are linked rather than opposites. A reflection on Wall Street's recovery from 9/11 notes that when the market reopened on Sept. 17, 2001, it told the world that terrorism wouldn't paralyze us. A columnist recounts how Claude called them an investment dunce, finding the chatbot's patronising tone unwelcome in an AI portfolio challenge. A piece on the corporate name game warns of risks while noting the bond rout paused ahead of inflation data. The basic materials roundup offers insight on gold futures, Talon Metals, Norsk Hydro and more. The auto and transport roundup covers US diesel prices, Kia, Alstom and more. The tech, media and telecom roundup features insight on Apple, Cyber Agent, Adobe and more. An essay asks whether money is a tool of moral decay or a force for human liberation, contrasting Dante and James Joyce. The FirstFT newsletter leads with Bessent failing to break the bond market fever, plus the US diesel price hitting $6 a gallon and a Citadel shake-up.
Politics & Policy
President Trump headed to Ireland for the Irish Open at his golf course after a two-day Republican rally in Dallas, where he tried to energize voters amid fears the party could face losses in the midterms. Trump's "midterm convention" tried to reach die-hard Republican voters but lacked oomph over its long, odd two-night TV production. The president made clear as his convention wrapped up that he wants to carry his party through a tough midterms, even as he declared he is a little bit tired of politics. Influencers invited to the Republican midterm convention largely avoided talking about the economy, working to find a message that would resonate with an audience struggling with an affordability crisis. A dispatch from Dallas 2026 concludes that Donald Trump is not going anywhere. The president attacked three Democrats running for Senate this week with inaccurate claims to portray them as too extreme. The legal wrangling over a congressional map redrawn by Republicans in Missouri has election officials, candidates and voters scrambling before November. A piece examines what JD Vance knew about the war and new warnings about AI, plus a Friday news quiz. A political scientist revisits his 1992 book "The End of History and the Last Man," examining what it has predicted about liberalism today. Mayor Zohran Mamdani, facing Islamophobia, has kept focus on 9/11 victims, visiting firehouses around New York City to direct public attention toward the victims and away from himself.
Media, Culture & Society
McClatchy is making deep job cuts to newspapers around the country, with the owner of The Miami Herald cutting 90 journalists in nationwide layoffs as subscriber interest did not support its current level of investment. One employee called the layoffs a "blood bath." The CDC has declared the Cyclospora outbreak linked to iceberg lettuce over, with the outbreak linked to shredded iceberg lettuce from supplier Taylor Farms resulting in a total of 12,883 reported cases of the gastrointestinal food-borne illness across the country. A look at why cheap used cars are so hard to find notes that a three-year-old car was the sweet spot for buying used, since they have passed the peak of depreciation, but they now average about $33,000. The US Open has been quietly releasing tickets for its popular tournament, with hundreds appearing on Ticketmaster on Wednesday as the United States Tennis Association periodically released tickets it held for a variety of reasons. A tale of two US Opens contrasts the $20,000 versus $100 experience, where luxury options are plentiful if money is no object, but a budget day at the finals is possible if you take the subway and don't mind watching on a screen. Cardiologists are struggling to figure out why a heart drug failed to prevent heart attacks despite so much promise. The contractor for the Reflecting Pool blamed its own repairs, not vandals, for damage, saying the pool's new blue liner peeled and tore because of "human oversight" and a flawed plan involving layering two incompatible chemicals. A profile of artist Jeff Koons examines five decades of sculptures that are larger-than-life and singularly reflective of his own. The only fraternal organization for women special operations veterans held a gala to mark the wars that began 25 years ago, as the Pentagon questions women's roles in the military. Rapper Lil Durk was found not guilty in a murder-for-hire case after being accused of orchestrating a plot to kill a rival in an ambush that resulted in the death of another man. The holdout juror in Lindsay Clancy's mistrial highlights a divide in America, with the nation's reaction to the 11-1 deadlock fiercely and unbridgeably divided. A separate opinion item quotes Gayle King asking about the holdout juror in the Clancy case.
9/11 Anniversary & Remembrance
New York marked the 25th anniversary of 9/11 at Ground Zero, where elected officials and loved ones of those killed in the 2001 terror attacks gathered in solemn remembrance. America gathered to remember 25 years after 9/11, while an Iranian-backed militia seized a key Red Sea island. The C.I.A. released dozens of intelligence documents it had sent to Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, outlining what was known about Al Qaeda before the attacks. Twenty-five years after 9/11, a piece reflects on the heroism and national unity in the hours and days after the attacks, stepping back from today's cynicism. A look back at Sept. 11, 2001 marks the 25-year milestone. Israel destroyed an underground Hezbollah base in southern Lebanon, with the complex sitting below Ali al-Taher ridge, a strategic hilltop overlooking the region that has seen intense fighting. Lineage has sued a solar-panel company and contractor over an LA warehouse fire, while Houthi militants expand control near a strategic Red Sea chokepoint and the Amazon plane crash puts a spotlight on freight carrier 21 Air.