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Public Markets

Last updated: March 26, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Geopolitics & Macro-Economic Fallout

Global markets are bracing for stagflation as escalating tensions in the Middle East revive inflation fears, threatening to hit growth and confidence. The OECD warned that the conflict will likely push US inflation to 4.2%, making American price growth the highest in the G7, a concern amplified by the fact that German economic growth projections for 2026 risk halving if the war persists. In energy markets, European natural gas prices climbed 2.7% to 54.23 euros amid supply uncertainty, while the Philippines was forced to suspend its wholesale electricity spot market to prevent a price surge.

The impact of sustained conflict is already being felt across supply chains, with reports indicating that a Turkish oil tanker was targeted by a drone attack in the Black Sea near Istanbul. This instability is hitting shipping and freight costs, causing Hapag-Lloyd to warn of an earnings slump due to disrupted trade flows, while UK retailer Next confirmed it has already accounted for £15 million in extra costs from higher fuel and air freight charges, as it warns Middle East war could push up prices. Meanwhile, the rising cost of fertilizer, which coincides with the US planting season, is adding further inflationary pressure, prompting Donald Trump to meet with top industry figures.

Fixed Income & Investor Sentiment

Investor risk aversion is spiking, with allocations to cash rebuilding at a pace reminiscent of the immediate aftermath of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as traders sell both stocks and bonds. This flight to safety is pushing yields higher across developed markets, with US and European government bond yields rising as inflation worries resurface, and Denmark’s central bank urging caution on public spending amid risks to its domestic economy if the Middle East conflict drags on. Even if the conflict ends swiftly, European bonds are expected to struggle to bounce back from the initial selloff, according to market participants.

Corporate Deals & Sector Shifts

The insurance sector saw a major consolidation move as Corebridge Financial and Equitable Holdings agreed to merge in an all-stock transaction valuing the combined entity at $1. সংস্থার $22 billion, a development that occurs as private capital groups increasingly link their growth strategies to managing US insurer assets as reported by the Financial Times. In the defense sector, private investment interest is soaring, evidenced by military drone startup Shield AI raising $2 billion and planning an acquisition of a simulation software maker. Conversely, in slower sectors, Designer Brands reported lower comparable sales for its fourth fiscal quarter, negatively impacted by a decline in its direct-to-consumer channel.

Technology Regulation & Private Markets

Big Tech is facing increasing regulatory headwinds following consecutive courtroom losses, leading some commentators to question if the sector is entering a “Big Tobacco Moment”. This pressure is extending to social media platforms in Europe, where Brussels regulators have accused Snapchat of maintaining a weak age-verification system that steers young users toward inappropriate content, mirroring accusations leveled against major pornographic platforms for inadequate user checks as noted by the FT. In private markets, the flow of capital is faltering, with private credit fund inflows dropping over a third in the first two months of the year due to concerns over high-profile loan defaults and disruption from artificial intelligence.

Real Estate & Infrastructure Finance

In a novel move signaling evolving collateral standards, Fannie Mae will now accept mortgages where buyers pledge Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as part of their down payment. In infrastructure, French construction giant Vinci signed an agreement with Macquarie Asset Management to acquire the Safeway Concessions portfolio for approximately $1.60 billion. Elsewhere, the pandemic-era building boom has resulted in specialty storage market weakness, with cold-storage vacancies hitting a 20-year high.

Regulatory Scrutiny & Corporate Governance

Financial watchdogs are intensely scrutinizing financial service providers, with private credit rating agency Egan-Jones publicly hitting back at an ‘incendiary allegation’ made by the SEC that it claims has harmed its business. In the UK, the CEO of Co-op is stepping down amid mounting costs from a major cyber attack and allegations of a ‘toxic culture’ within the senior ranks reported the Financial Times. Meanwhile, Big Four firm EY has reportedly set aside a record £188 million for legal claims and fines as it battles multiple probes related to the quality of its audit work.

Private Equity

Last updated: March 26, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Private Equity Exits & Acquisitions

Private equity dealmaking in the beauty sector faces headwinds due to Middle East conflict, a sentiment echoed across transaction floors as firms continue to execute platform plays. In the aerospace logistics space, Sun European acquired Heathrow-based B&H Worldwide, a provider of services for aviation components, following a similar move where they invested in another logistics business, B&H Worldwide. Separately, the infrastructure exit market saw a transaction where Audax and Greenbriar sold airport services firm AGI to Lone Star, concluding their co-investment period which began in June 2021. Furthermore, on the buy side for platform expansion, Sovereign-backed Affinia made an add-on acquisition, building upon its foundation firm, LB Group, which Sovereign originally backed in May 2023.

Deal Financing & Secondary Market Strategy

Investment banks are adapting to capitalize on the need for liquidity as PE firms seek ways to realize gains, with Bank of America launching a dedicated Private Capital M&A unit specifically designed to unlock exits for private equity sponsors. Financing large deals remains active, as evidenced by Bain Capital securing a significant A$430 million loan, equivalent to approximately $300 million, earmarked to finance its acquisition of Perpetual’s Australian wealth management arm. In a separate deployment of capital, Blackstone committed $250 million toward a UAE-based payments platform, forming part of a larger $1 billion investment thesis focused on regional digital infrastructure despite current geopolitical tensions.

Middle East Capital Deployment & Platform Growth

Middle Eastern institutional capital continues to aggressively deploy funds globally, with Alterra backing General Atlantic’s latest investment into the managed services provider Wireless Logic, signaling sustained appetite from the region's sovereign wealth funds. Meanwhile, within the U.S. workforce services sector, Trinity Hunt-backed Allvia expanded its platform capabilities by snapping up HR Pals, a U.S.-based provider of workforce services. These platform additions occur even as broader venture funding dynamics shift, where data shows that while overall seed funding has not stalled, the activity is skewing toward larger rounds, with only deals exceeding $10 million showing growth in 2025, making early-stage competition fiercer than ever.

Sector Focus & UK Regional Investment

Geographic focus remains important for deploying capital, even as certain sectors experience friction; while PE dealmaking in beauty faces pressure due to conflict in the Middle East, the UK’s investment map shows opportunities extending beyond traditional hubs. Analysis suggests UK regions outside London are becoming increasingly investable for private capital, indicating a diversification of deployment strategy across the British Isles. In the technology sphere, internal governance matters are playing out in court, as reports detail an alleged ‘covert plot’ by Balderton and AVP aimed at ousting the founder of Cognism. The technology focus extends to AI, where Yann LeCun handpicked a 'maverick' founder to lead AMI Labs, while data indicates deeptech investors remained active throughout 2025.

Sector Investment

Last updated: March 26, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

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