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Stagflation Threat Looms as Iran Conflict Escalates

Financial Times Markets •
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Rising tensions in Iran threaten to derail global economic growth as conflict risks triggering stagflation - a dangerous combination of stagnant growth and high inflation. The potential for war comes at a precarious moment for world markets already grappling with persistent inflation and slowing momentum. Energy prices could spike dramatically if military action disrupts Iran's oil exports, which account for roughly 2 million barrels per day.

Financial markets are already pricing in heightened volatility, with oil futures climbing and safe-haven assets like gold gaining ground. The conflict threatens to undermine central banks' efforts to control inflation through interest rate policies, as higher energy costs could force a painful policy dilemma. Governments worldwide face the prospect of reduced economic growth coinciding with increased military spending and potential supply chain disruptions.

For investors, the situation creates a challenging environment where traditional diversification strategies may falter. Emerging markets particularly vulnerable to commodity price swings could see capital flight, while developed economies may face renewed pressure on household budgets. The economic fallout could extend well beyond the immediate conflict zone, potentially derailing the fragile post-pandemic recovery that many economies are still navigating.