Markets 3 Days

Public Markets

Market Overview

Multiple forces are colliding in ways that defy easy fixes, as the old playbook of buying the dip is far from guaranteed to work, according to market analysts. Investors cut leverage as the Iran conflict and oil price spikes roiled Indian markets, with margin funding dropping to the lowest level since November. The surge in oil prices, exceeding $100 a barrel, has compelled India’s central bank to step up support for both the rupee and bonds, heightening inflation risks. The conflict also sent tremors through the global economy.

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices will likely remain high as the war in Iran continues, experts say. However, oil prices offered a stunning reversal, with a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz needed to sustain a decline, according to ING. Trend riders, the algorithmic traders known for riding trends, have maxed out on bullish bets on US oil. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency oil meeting and stand ready to release emergency oil reserves. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices near $120 a barrel, prompting South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to urge a fuel price cap. The war is also a potent geopolitical tool again. The rise in oil prices has caused the highest weekly jump in the average US price of petrol since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Metals & Mining

Aluminum extended its retreat from a four-year high, as US President Donald Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran war. A surge in aluminum prices propelled China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo to a $48 billion fortune. The ongoing conflict in Iran could lead to an increase in traffic at the Panama Canal from Asian energy buyers seeking alternative LNG sources, according to canal administrator Ricaurte Vasquez.

Fixed Income & Currencies

The Singapore dollar was steady against its US counterpart in the Asian session, supported by a pullback in oil prices. Japanese government bonds rose, tracking gains in U.S. Treasurys. China’s government bonds slumped as surging oil prices spurred concern over imported inflation. US airline bonds weakened as the Middle East war lifted jet fuel costs.

Equities

Japanese stocks bounced back as a fall in oil prices eased some concerns around the Middle East conflict, although investors remained on alert as Donald Trump said the war will not end this week. JPMorgan sees a 10% correction in the S&P 500 as war risks build up. Gabler Group AG’s shares rose on their first day of trading in Germany, buoyed by strong demand among investors for European defense firms.

Corporate Actions & M&A

Madison Air filed for a Nasdaq IPO targeting a $500M valuation, buoyed by three consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth in the private aviation charter market. Blackstone secured a $1.2 billion loan for Air Trunk's expansion into Japanese data centers, part of a broader push by private equity into AI infrastructure assets across Asia-Pacific. AMC turned to an existing creditor to refinance debt after turbulence in public markets derailed a planned bond and loan sale. PAG is considering a sale of poultry meat producer Shandong Fengxiang Co. after taking it private last year.

Activist Campaigns & Corporate Governance

Carmignac is supporting a campaign by UK-based activist fund Palliser Capital to improve corporate governance and boost shareholder value at South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. Starboard Value is pushing Lamb Weston to speed up improvements and cost cutting. Mongolia presses Rio Tinto to rewrite the terms of its $18 billion Oyu Tolgoi mine.

Economic Indicators & Policy

Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated more than expected in February. Australia’s fiscal coffers are set to be boosted by higher liquefied natural gas and coal export prices, while households will be hit by surging gasoline costs. The Senate Agriculture Committee chair urged farm rescue after the oil price surge. Taiwan is considering selling debt for the first time to finance overseas investments.

Geopolitical & Regulatory

The US told its G-7 partners that Russia sanctions relief would be temporary as it reacts to spiking energy prices amid the war in Iran. The US and Western allies turn to reserves to counteract the Gulf oil crisis. The U.S. government reached an agreement to end prosecution of Turkey’s Halkbank. Venezuela’s National Assembly gave preliminary approval to a new mining bill. China keeps pushing nuclear power with an ambitious growth target.

Legal & Political

In a rare joint appearance, Supreme Court Justices offered sharply different views on how the court should handle emergency requests. The US has removed a Republican member of the NTSB, citing no reason. A Republican-led House committee on China demands information from Dominari Securities and two other firms.

Industry Specifics

Four Chinese-run nickel plants in Indonesia halted output after a deadly landslide. Vail forecasts lower profit after sparse snow deterred skiers. Air New Zealand suspended its earnings guidance as wildly fluctuating jet fuel prices mean the assumptions it made less than two weeks ago are no longer valid. FedEx tops UPS in market value, becoming the biggest US parcel firm.

Other Notable Developments

A company backed by US energy magnate Harry Sargeant III moved to export Venezuelan crude to Asia as US sanctions ease. The former Treasury secretary and Harvard president is no longer affiliated with America’s leading economics organization. Nigel Farage takes a stake in a bitcoin company.

Private Equity

Fundraising & Capital Markets

Founders Fund closed a $6 billion growth fund, marking its second major capital raise in under a year after securing $4.6 billion for its third growth vehicle last year. Meanwhile, Kembara Capital launched a $1 billion fund targeting deep tech startups, with founder Michael Seibel warning that "missing out on the deep tech era is unforgivable." In the secondaries market, Step Stone's Matthew Roche described DPI as the new IRR, noting that "it's been a tough four years for private equity" as slow exits have made distributions to paid-in capital the primary performance metric. The evolving secondaries landscape has LPs taking a more proactive approach, with diversity-focused exits expected to represent 10-20% of PE transactions, according to Level 20 CEO Gurpreet Manku.

Major Acquisitions & Divestments

Monomoy agreed to acquire Jiffy Lube from Shell in a $1.3 billion deal, expanding its automotive services portfolio beyond core oil changes into brakes, batteries, and tires. In the defense sector, Advent International explored a potential $4 billion sale of Ultra Maritime, its naval defense business. Blackstone engaged Citigroup to advise on a potential $1 billion sale of Shya Hsin Packaging, while Lone Star agreed to acquire Lonza's Capsules and Health Ingredients division in a deal encompassing hard empty capsules, dosage form solutions, and health ingredients. EQT and Ambienta made separate water treatment acquisitions, with Ambienta purchasing Pieco, a provider of high-performance water treatment and recycling solutions.

Portfolio Company Activity

HIG Capital's newly formed Coriant made its fourth acquisition, purchasing CVS to complement recent mergers of Rainham, Zenith, and Tei. FFL Partners established Pioneer HOA, a holding company for its homeowners association property management investments. Meanwhile, Main Post agreed to sell Not Your Mother's, the haircare brand launched in 2010 by Rocky and Bethany Pagliarulo, to Henkel. Altamont Capital Partners invested in Key Container, a specialty corrugated packaging provider, while Isembard raised $50 million to strengthen Europe's industrial base.

Infrastructure & Energy

GIC-backed Greenko Energies weighed a potential $1 billion IPO, backed by sovereign wealth funds including Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. In geothermal energy, Telura secured backing from Nucleus and First Momentum, operating in stealth mode on new energy solutions. The Nordics continue to attract attention, with 21 female founders and operators highlighted as ones to watch, though Denmark's proposed wealth tax plan raised concerns about its impact on startups.

Sports & Entertainment

Private equity's growing interest in sports was underscored by insights from investors including Ian Charles, Mark Cuban, José E. Feliciano, and Marc Lasry. Meanwhile, Tencent considered fresh investment in the $110 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. deal backed by Red Bird, potentially adding several hundred million dollars to the entertainment merger.

Technology & Innovation

Peter Diamandis launched the Future Vision Xprize, partnering with Google, Marc Benioff, and Ben Horowitz to fund optimistic sci-fi films that envision positive technological futures. The contest aims to counter dystopian narratives and inspire innovation through storytelling. In venture funding trends, the Series B pipeline showed encouraging diversification, with annual funding moving steadily higher after 2023's trough and posting a strong start to the current year.

Industry Movements

Sebastien Siou joined Level 20 as managing director, bringing experience from Secondaries Investor's Next Gen program. Francisco Partners targeted multiple fund closes, reflecting continued demand for technology-focused private equity strategies. As SPACs potentially return to European markets, analysts warned against repeating past mistakes, emphasizing the need for sustainable structures that avoid becoming "dumpster fires" for startups.

Sector Investment

Real Estate Fundraising

– The fundraising pipeline unclogging as capital targeted by private real‑estate funds in January 2026 slipped versus a year earlier, even as the number of active funds continued to climb. At the same time, senior executives from APG, ADIA and ART signaled a readiness to provide cornerstone capital for new vehicles, provided the fee structure and alignment meet their standards securing commitments.

Asset‑Manager Strategy Shifts

– In Tokyo, adopting caution sees BlackRock trimming exposure to longer‑dated Japanese assets, favoring smaller positions that can be liquidated quickly amid the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate normalization. Across the Atlantic, recalibrating portfolio describes how KKR’s real‑estate arm is navigating a turbulent global expansion, with executives emphasizing disciplined capital allocation after a series of under‑performing acquisitions.

Healthcare Private‑Equity Activity

– A leading $140 million raise was announced by New Spring Healthcare for Honest Health, a Nashville‑based platform that partners with health systems to expand value‑based care services. The infusion brings Honest Health’s total funding to roughly $200 million and positions it for accelerated rollout of its analytics and care‑coordination tools.

Infrastructure & Data‑Centre Deals

– Canada’s pension giant CPP, fresh from a $4 billion data‑centre acquisition, is now seeking “established” platform exposure to deepen its infrastructure footprint pursuing exposure. Meanwhile, a consortium led by GIP and EQT sealed a $33.4 billion takeover of AES, marking one of the largest energy‑asset deals of the year, while major technology firms pledged new data‑centre capacity at the White House, underscoring the sector’s role in powering AI workloads closing mega‑deal.