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Public Markets

Last updated: May 13, 2026, 5:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Commodities Shock

Global energy markets remain dominated by Middle East conflict fallout, with the IEA now forecasting a contraction in global oil demand of 420,000 barrels a day this year, a massive downward revision from the prior 80,000-barrel estimate, as inventories draw down rapidly. The crisis has fundamentally altered investor calculus in the region, where geopolitical resilience has surpassed economic growth as the primary factor attracting capital. Oil prices slipped slightly as traders awaited clarity from the high-stakes meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Beijing, while the US Navy’s blockade around Hormuz faces challenges, evidenced by an Iranian-linked LPG tanker sailing past the boundary just ahead of the summit.

The impact of sustained high energy prices is translating into tangible economic strain across Europe and Asia. ECB member Olli Rehn warned that incoming data suggests the start of a stagflationary shock, a concern echoed in France where the economy is showing signs of faltering, with unemployment rising above 8% for the first time in five years. Meanwhile, Japan is reverting to coal power as conflict-driven spikes make procuring Liquefied Natural Gas prohibitively expensive, and shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd cautioned on higher fuel costs despite maintaining annual guidance.

Fixed Income & Central Bank Moves

U.S. Treasury yields reversed earlier gains but the 10-year note hovered near a one-year high following Tuesday's hotter-than-expected inflation data, fueling concerns that disinflation is receding as energy prices surge. This shift in pricing has directly impacted foreign holders, leading Japanese investors to dump the most US sovereign debt since 2022 amid an abrupt turnaround in Federal Reserve policy wagers. In Europe, government bond yields eased modestly, tracking the slight dip in oil prices, while UK Gilts recovered ground following a bruising selloff as investors weighed the political stability of Prime Minister Keir Starmer holding onto power.

Emerging market currencies experienced divergence based on specific policy actions and reserve strength. The Hungarian forint weakened sharply after the central bank unexpectedly cut the interest rate on its foreign-currency swaps, undermining one of the year's biggest EM currency rallies. In contrast, economists suggest India’s FX buffer remains far more robust than during the taper tantrum, capable of defending the rupee despite the oil shock, though the government is more than doubling gold tariffs to protect reserves. Turkey, however, recorded its largest monthly decline in foreign reserves in March due to the war-induced selloffs straining the lira.

Corporate Earnings & Dealmaking

European industrial and automotive sectors showed mixed results, with several giants lifting guidance despite the difficult backdrop. Deutsche Telekom lifted its full-year outlook based on its U.S. subsidiary's performance, while Germany’s Merck KGaA also raised guidance on life-sciences momentum. In the auto sector, Nissan projected a swing back to net profit for the fiscal year, signaling that recent restructuring moves are finally taking hold after seven consecutive quarterly losses, contrasting with BYD’s strategic moves to negotiate taking over European plants from Stellantis and others.

Dealmaking activity saw a major UK testing firm leaning toward accepting a buyout, as Intertek Group prepared to recommend EQT AB's final offer valued at £10.6bn, setting the stage for a contest among top London rainmakers in the takeover showdown. In the industrial space, Siemens launched a new $7 billion share buyback program spanning five years, even as the company posted higher first-quarter revenue across its core divisions. Meanwhile, emerging market investment flows continued, with Uzbekistan’s state fund rising in its London debut following a $604 million IPO.

Technology & US-China Dynamics

Anticipation surrounding the Trump-Xi summit cast a complex shadow over technology and trade, with market sentiment mixed ahead of the leaders’ meeting to discuss economic friction. While President Trump repeated military threats against Iran, which has cast a pall over the talks, a key focus remains the AI arms race, where the US currently holds a technological advantage after firms like Anthropic declined Chinese access to their newest models. Chinese AI stocks, however, surged temporarily on hopes that Jensen Huang’s presence on the US delegation could unlock future H200 chip supply, even as established giants like Tencent and Alibaba lag behind pure AI plays. In related market activity, the CME is planning to launch futures contracts for AI computing power, allowing hedging against GPU rental price volatility.

Global Health & Policy Notes

Markets received a minor reprieve from health scares as an isolated case in Italy tested negative for hantavirus, easing transmission worries sparked by an earlier Dutch patient. On the policy front, Greece is exploring early repayment of more of its bailout-era loans ahead of schedule this year. In the US, beef prices surged to new all-time highs, adding urgency to the Trump administration’s attempts to curb inflation, which has caused stocks to slide after April data showed prices running hotter than anticipated.

Private Equity

Last updated: May 13, 2026, 5:30 AM ET

Dealmaking Activity & Volume

Global private equity deal volume contracted in Q1 despite an increase in overall transaction value, reflecting a trend where a smaller number of larger transactions are being completed, according to recent data analysis. This environment is prompting investors to seek specialization, as noted by Bridge Growth Partners’ Alok Singh, who advises portfolio companies to focus intently on niche areas for growth. Meanwhile, major firms continue to restructure holdings; KKR exited a Danish residential portfolio containing 213 units to Pears Global Real Estate, concluding an investment made in 2021 via its KKR Real Estate Partners Europe II fund.

Major Exits & Public Market Moves

Advent filed an S-1 registration statement for INNIO Group on Nasdaq, signaling an exit attempt that targets investor appetite for data center power infrastructure demand. Separately, Gen Nx360 realized an exit exceeding $2bn from the sale of Precision Aviation Group to VSE, a firm that operates 29 global locations. In contrast to IPO plans, EQT launched a tender offer to take Japan's Kakaku.com private at JPY 3,000 per share, valuing the target at approximately $19.20 per share.

Mega-Deals and Consolidation

Apollo-managed funds moved to consolidate the events industry by agreeing to acquire Emerald Holding and Questex in separate transactions, planning to merge the two B2B events businesses in a deal valued at $1.5bn. In Europe, EQT secured a breakthrough in taking Intertek private, while in Italy, Green Arrow Capital finalized its acquisition of DeA Capital, creating the nation's largest alternative investment manager with €8bn in assets under management. Concurrently, Goldman Sachs Alternatives acquired commercial finance firm FGI, installing FGI co-founder Sami Altaher as the new CEO.

Sector-Specific Acquisitions and Platform Building

Activity remains high in specialized service sectors, with HIG Capital-backed Avanta Salud targeting the acquisition of Iberian occupational health provider Vitaly Group. In legal services, Axcel-backed AGRD Partners expanded its Nordic platform by acquiring Iceland’s BBA Fjeldco, adding to a roster that already includes several regional law firms. Furthermore, Altaline and Haven launched the elevator services network Ascend Safety Collective, appointing former executives from Kings III Emergency and ATIS to its board to drive the platform strategy forward.

Infrastructure & Industrial Transactions

In infrastructure, Infracapital acquired Relobus from Mutares, securing one of Poland's largest private operators of public bus transport services. Meanwhile, Branford Castle-backed Lafayette purchased Sutter Instrument, a manufacturer of specialized equipment for life sciences and polygraph markets. Shore Capital is actively building out its industrial automation focus, appointing Aurelio Banda as executive operating partner to lead that platform strategy.

Investor Capital Allocation & AI Focus

Mubadala’s Zouhir Regragui emphasized that insulation from AI disruption is a top priority for capital allocation, favoring entrenched market leaders who use AI to augment customer value rather than merely cut costs. This focus on cutting-edge technology is mirrored by significant funding events, such as DeepMind spinout Isomorphic Labs raising an impressive $2.1bn. On the fundraising front, Kevin Hartz’s Aclosed its third fund at $450M, maintaining a generalist approach across sectors including AI applications and fintech, with an average check size targeted around $3 million.

Sourcing Capital and Secondaries Market

The Qatar Investment Authority committed $500m to General Atlantic for its global growth equity strategies, substantially deepening an existing relationship. However, the secondary market faces headwinds, with industry participants urging caution regarding evergreen marketing while noting a dent in otherwise burgeoning secondaries volumes due to market uncertainty. To bolster its secondaries team, Pantheon recruited Leif Lindbäck from CVC Capital Partners to spearhead its push into GP-led secondary transactions.

European Tech & Conference Activity

European venture funding continues to see a growing percentage driven by AI, supporting firms that are now seeking Series A rounds, with 25 YC startups due to raise in the near future. Attention is turning toward key regional industry gatherings, with CEE's largest private equity conference scheduled for Warsaw in May, followed by Switzerland's largest PE conference returning to Zurich in June. Additionally, European AI leaders are expected to convene at Nexus Luxembourg 2026 to discuss regional technology development.

Sector Investment

Last updated: May 13, 2026, 5:30 AM ET

European Real Estate Mandates Shift

BNPP Asset Management is directing €3bn toward its European credit strategy, focusing on lending against transitional real estate assets to achieve high single-digit internal rates of return through its newest fund structure amassing capital. This move mirrors a broader appetite for specialized debt strategies, as AEW Europe seeks to diversify its offerings beyond traditional core and core-plus mandates under its new CEO, Vanessa Roux-Collet expanding product range. Elsewhere, listed players are facing pressure from private market competition, with data center operator Digital Realty reportedly plotting a private fundraising expansion to compete with aggressive dealmaking seen from firms like Brookfield.