Scotland’s loss to Morocco leaves them chasing the last‑place third‑spot in Group C. Steve Clarke’s side sit on three points with a neutral goal difference, meaning a win over Brazil is the only clear path to six points and an automatic second‑place finish. Brazil’s 0‑0 draw with Morocco adds pressure on Scotland.

Opta calculate Scotland’s chance of progressing at roughly 73.5 %. Four points would almost guarantee a place among the eight best third‑placed teams, while three points with a –1 goal difference could still scrape through if other third‑places finish on one point. History shows a –2 goal difference and three points has been enough, but the expanded format adds uncertainty for Scotland.

The knockout draw hinges on that Brazil result. A second‑place finish sends Clarke’s men to Monterrey to meet the winner of the Netherlands‑Sweden‑Japan group, while a third‑place slot opens 495 possible permutations for their round‑of‑16 opponent – most likely Group E’s leader, Germany, in Boston on 29 June. Scotland’s fate now rests on a single match.