Icelanders are voting in a referendum to decide whether to resume talks on joining the European Union, 13 years after talks were suspended. The latest opinion poll shows the No campaign leading with 51.6%, while an earlier poll had the Yes campaign ahead. Voting runs from 09:00 to 22:00 GMT on Saturday, with results expected early Sunday.

Iceland has a population of under 400,000, and over one in five voters had already cast ballots in early voting. A Yes vote would not finalize EU membership but would support moving toward an accession agreement, requiring a second referendum, parliamentary approval, constitutional changes, and ratification by all 27 EU member states. Key debates center on sovereignty and the fishing industry, which makes up nearly 40% of Iceland’s exports.

The No campaign fears losing control over fishing grounds under the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, recalling the historic Cod Wars with the UK. Although Iceland is already in the EU’s single market and Schengen zone via the European Economic Area, full membership would bring it into the customs union and eventually the euro. Talks were well advanced before being halted in 2013, with 27 of 35 chapters begun and 11 provisionally complete.

The EU has suggested possible exemptions for fisheries, but this remains a major obstacle. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir brought the referendum forward due to turbulent international affairs. The Yes to See campaign argues voters should see what deal is possible before a final decision, while a No vote does not rule out future talks.