It cannot have been easy for Kevin Warsh to come out for raising interest rates. The man who appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve this year, President Trump, has been vocal in saying he thinks rates should be much lower. But with inflation persistently above target and bond investors restless, Warsh didn’t have a choice. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which Warsh heads, voted unanimously on Wednesday to raise the central bank’s key short-term lending rate. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes hit 5 percent before the Fed vote, the highest level since 2007, and has stayed around that level since, keeping borrowing costs high for home buyers and others.

It’s not clear how much raising short-term interest rates will pull down long-term rates. That’s because there are too many explanations floating around for why bond yields have risen so much. If you can’t pin down why something’s happening, you don’t have much hope of fixing it. Economists would say the rise in yields is “overdetermined.” Here are 10 explanations from politicians, economists and others. Some of these would be mitigated by Fed rate increases, and some that would require something that changes in interest rates can’t supply. Strong economy The unemployment rate in August was just 4.1 percent, well below the 50-year average of 5.7 percent. A strong economy usually makes rates go up. But that’s not how Trump sees it. After the Fed vote, he wrote Wednesday on Truth Social that interest rates should be 1 percent or less because the U.S. economy is strong, with “booming investment.”

Trump’s logic is weak on two counts. First, contrary to Trump’s claim that “we are the Best Credit in the World,” some foreign investors are getting nervous about putting money into the United States because of his hostile behavior, as The Times reported this week. Second, “booming” is not consistent with cutting rates. It takes higher rates to attract the additional funds needed for investment. Plus, fast growth makes people feel richer and less inclined to save, so rates have to be more attractive. Oil Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Steve Bannon this month that interest rates have been moving in close sync with oil prices. He predicted that oil could fall to $40 or $50 a barrel when the war with Iran ends, and that would help lower interest rates. But even if oil and rates do remain in sync, which isn’t clear, oil prices that low seem a long way off. The war with Iran has heated up lately, and now the Houthis are pressuring oil flows through the Red Sea.