The national championship market was quiet after Week 2, with minor adjustments for Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami. Oregon was the exception, nearly doubling from +950 to +1800 after losing to Oklahoma State. Ohio State and Texas held steady after the Longhorns rallied from a 20-point deficit to win 24-23.

Ohio State's title odds moved from +550 to +510 despite the loss. The Buckeyes built a 23-3 lead and outgained Texas, but gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns. The market cared more about the first three quarters. Texas' odds stayed at +650. The win improved their résumé, but the offense struggled for three quarters before leaning on the run and short passing game.

Texas still has a difficult schedule ahead, including at Tennessee, at LSU, at Texas A&M, plus Ole Miss at home and Oklahoma on a neutral field. The first test was passed; the next is proving the fourth-quarter adjustment can become the normal offense.

Futures prediction: Ohio State UNDER 9.5 wins (+105). Ohio State has lost three of its last four games. The Buckeyes still have road games at Indiana and at USC, two spots with a greater chance to become losses. Ohio State generated almost no pass rush against Texas late. USC and Indiana have offenses capable of exploiting that weakness. Oregon, Iowa and Michigan aren't automatic either. I'm passing on Ohio State to miss the playoff at +225, because a 9-3 Buckeyes team could still find a way in. Under 9.5 lets us bet against the regular-season schedule without predicting what the committee does. The Heisman market saw major changes and some names kept roughly the same odds.