Bill Connelly Sep 9, 2026, 06:30 AM ET Close Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.

What is and isn't true about the epic hype that has surrounded the latest Manning prodigy? At this stage, however, what is the Arch Manning myth? That he's dramatically overhyped? That, after the pushback to last year's hype, he's actually underhyped now? That he's the best college quarterback and a surefire No. 1 pick? That he's barely even a top-10 NFL prospect amid a loaded batch of college QBs? The Texas QB suffered a mediocre start to last season, including a meek 14-7 defeat to Ohio State, an 11-for-25 performance against UTEP, a pair of interceptions in a devastating upset loss to Florida and a 23.7 Total QBR in a near-loss against Kentucky. But he and the Longhorns rallied, averaging 35 points while winning five of their last six, including a win over Texas A&M, and nearly snagging a College Football Playoff berth. Head coach Steve Sarkisian surrounded him with star transfers this offseason, thinning out the Texas skill corps a bit but adding blue-chip receiver Cam Coleman and a pair of standout running backs in Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown.

Did that bring the hype all the way back? Or did the average college football fan write him off for good last year? I'm honestly not sure, but I know that Manning and the Horns looked spectacular in a Week 1 blasting of Texas State, and they host top-ranked Ohio State on Saturday night in the biggest game of the early season. Whatever the current Arch myths are, let's test them out. Can we confirm them or bust them? Myth No. 1: Arch is a bust Verdict: Busted! Yes, this one has been busted for a while, but it picked up major steam last October.

Through eight starts in 2025, Manning's Total QBR was just 58.6, 74th in FBS and behind other struggling former blue-chippers such as UCLA's Nico Iamaleava (70th), Nebraska's Dylan Raiola (71st) and Auburn's Jackson Arnold (72nd). Texas was lucky to be even 6-2 after narrowly surviving against two eventual five-win opponents (Kentucky and Mississippi State). Once the calendar flipped to November, however, Manning began to produce.

He posted the best Total QBR in the country from that point, charging up to finish 17th overall. He produced a Total QBR of 91.9 or higher in four of his last five games of the season, and he began this season with a 96.0 against Texas State. In these past six games, he has improved in basically every important category.

While that latter sample does include Saturday's start against a shaky Texas State defense, it also includes games against two CFP teams from last season (Georgia and Texas A&M) and two more teams that finished ranked (Vanderbilt and Michigan). The competition has been solid, but Manning has been great. Where has he improved? There's no single category that tells the story here -- as you can see above, he has improved just about everywhere.

He's running more selectively (and explosively), and he's completing a few more of his passes for slightly bigger gains. Honestly, the biggest thing seems to simply be that his decision-making has sped up. It would make sense if the game began to slow down for a talented QB after a few starts, and two telling statistical shifts hint at that.

First, he has thrown 12.0% of his passes to players running vertical routes over these past six games, compared to only 7.5% in his first eight starts. He has been more aggressive and less willing to settle for checkdowns, but even though vertical routes can take more time to develop, he has also improved his average time to throw, from 2.93 seconds over the first eight starts to 2.77 since. For obvious reasons, that helps in the sacks department.

In theory, this is the best kind of improvement because it's incremental -- it's not some new trick or huge strategic shift. He has simply improved because he's improved. At this point, what are his biggest strengths? Yo...