The world is set to burn record amounts of coal this year, driven largely by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency projects global coal consumption will increase 1.2 percent compared to last year, reaching an all-time high of 8.94 billion metric tons. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have limited oil and natural gas supplies, prompting Europe, China, Japan, and Korea to burn more coal for electricity.

El Niño is further increasing demand in Vietnam and India due to higher air-conditioning use and reduced hydropower output. Despite global efforts to phase down coal since the Glasgow climate agreement, fossil fuel use continues to rise as renewables fail to keep pace with growing energy demand. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has intensified these disruptions, with Iranian leaders restricting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade previously flowed.

Countries are compensating by running coal plants more frequently or using domestic stockpiles. China is substituting coal for oil in chemical production, and South Korea expects a roughly 6 percent jump in coal use due to high natural gas prices. Notably, U.S. coal consumption is projected to fall about 7 percent this year, insulated by abundant cheap natural gas and growth in solar and wind power, despite efforts to revive the coal industry.

The agency remains uncertain about next year’s trends, depending on whether L. N. G. flows through the Strait resume and natural gas prices decline.