Europe risks losing out in the race for a key metal used in high-tech industries despite being on track to produce enough to meet its own needs, a FTSE 100 energy group has warned. Evangelos Mytilineos, chair of Greece-based Metlen, said European companies had been unwilling to pay the higher price for the gallium it will start producing next year, preferring to buy it more cheaply from China. If we don’t have any well-structured European demand on the table, then the metal would be sold outside Europe to buyers in the US and Japan, Mytilineos warned.

Gallium is used in military systems including radars, missile seekers, satellites and radio systems, as well as in the manufacturing of semiconductors, making it an essential input for technologies underpinning the AI boom. About a quarter of the 50 tonnes of gallium that Metlen plans to produce annually has already been sold to an unnamed US technology company, with another two potential non-European deals in the pipeline. Those 50 tonnes would be enough to meet all of Europe's annual gallium needs, according to Metlen.

Henry Sanderson, from price reporting agency Fastmarkets, noted the large sums being invested in the US as part of efforts to catch up with market leader China, which was not the case in Europe. The question with Europe has always been 'where's the money,' he said. Jack Bedder, founder of minerals research group Project Blue, said Japan had been investing in its critical material supply chains for years while recent US interventions in the market were among the largest in commodity markets for a generation.

The US government has pledged billions of dollars in funding for critical minerals in a series of major deals, some of which have included Washington taking equity stakes in mining companies. While some metal is still flowing, buyers need licences to obtain certain materials, including gallium. In response, a handful of non-Chinese companies are racing to bring new gallium sources online, including Metlen's rival Alcoa, whose project in Australia is backed by several western governments.

Mytilineos said the absence of European buyers was all the more noteworthy because the EU is pushing us very hard to sell some material to Europe. Metlen's cost of production is below $300 per kg, compared with a current European market price of above $3,000 per kg, according to the company. Non-Chinese producers have complained for years that they are unable to compete with the more cheaply produced metals made by companies backed by Beijing.

The spectre of China flooding the market with cheap gallium and driving the price down has held companies back from investing in new supply. Mytilineos said his company was working day and night to bring its production costs down to $100 per kg, which would make it even more of a viable competitor to China. We're not afraid of the Chinese — let them flood the market.

It will kill everyone, not us.