Fears that the US-Israeli war on Iran would trigger a global food crisis by choking fertiliser supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have eased, as alternative exporters filled the gap. Urea imports via Hormuz dropped 85 per cent, but total import volumes fell only 6 per cent as Egypt and Nigeria boosted urea exports by 98 and 81 per cent respectively, per International Trade Centre (ITC) data. The US, Russia, and China also increased market share.

However, Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the ITC, warned the shift came at a cost: average urea import costs surged 70 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, with benchmark prices in India peaking near $950 per tonne in May before falling to about $400. Willis Thomas, head of fertilisers at CRU, noted nitrogen is the most critical crop nutrient. Egypt's Abu Qir Fertilizers, MOPCO, Egyptian Basic Industries Corporation, and Egyptian Fertilizers Company, alongside Nigeria's Dangote Fertiliser, ramped up supply.

Impacts remain uneven; Brazil saw urea and sulphur import costs rise 56 per cent and 176 per cent, while African nations like South Africa, Kenya, and Mozambique, previously reliant on Hormuz for over 70 per cent of urea, face acute affordability risks. Phosphate prices remain stubbornly high, threatening long-term yields.