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US battery market faces China supply split

MIT Technology Review •
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The US is hitting records for the rapid growth of its energy storage market. That’ll go a long way to shoring up the grid, increasing reliability and also cutting emissions, since batteries can help store energy from intermittent renewables like wind and solar. Crucially, this is all happening with the help of cheap Chinese batteries, though there’s been a concerted effort to reduce the US’s reliance on them. Most recently, in an executive order in late August, the Trump administration declared a national emergency that essentially bans Chinese batteries from being used in grid-scale energy storage systems.

This is hardly America’s first push to move away from Chinese influence in the battery supply chain. Back in 2022, the US government designed the tax credits that were part of the Inflation Reduction Act to restrict where a battery’s minerals could be mined, processed, or recycled, as well as where a battery and its components were assembled. New legislation requires that starting in 2026, 55% of the cost of materials used for new energy storage projects must come from outside China and other restricted countries or the projects won’t qualify for tax credits. Import taxes for batteries increased to 25% in January, up from 7.5%.

But the new executive order is a more drastic move. It bans the installation of “any foreign-produced bulk-power system electric equipment” that poses a national security risk, specifically calling out battery energy storage systems, inverters and transformers. “An outright ban was a bit of a surprise,” says Shan Tomouk of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Bloomberg NEF says the move is likely to slow deployment as developers wait for guidance from the Department of Energy. Some projects may need more expensive alternatives, and “Worst case, those projects could get canceled,” says Isshu Kikuma. The US could have enough battery capacity by about 2030, with new factories from LG Energy Solutions, Samsung SDI, Ford, and SK On coming online or ramping up by next year.