Trend Force's latest notebook industry research indicates that the main risk to the market in 2027 is shifting from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. Global notebook shipments are currently projected to decline by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027. However, if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated, brands may be forced to pass more of these costs on to consumers. Higher retail prices could further extend replacement cycles, potentially pushing the full-year shipment decline into the high-single-digit range.
In 2026, improved CPU availability, early procurement by brands, and the pull-forward of some replacement demand supported notebook shipments. However, this does not indicate a meaningful recovery in end-market demand. With some purchases originally expected in the second half of 2026 already brought forward, replacement momentum in later periods is likely to weaken. As lower-cost inventories are depleted, brands will face more direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices. For a mainstream notebook with a US$900 manufacturer's suggested retail price, CPU, DRAM, and SSD components accounted for approximately 68% of the bill of materials cost in 3Q26.
Brands face difficult trade-offs. Raising retail prices risks weakening demand, absorbing higher costs would squeeze gross margins, and reducing specifications such as memory capacity could undermine product competitiveness. In 2027, brands are therefore unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications, and profitability at the same time.
Trend Force also estimates that the share of global notebook production outside China will fall from about 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026, and potentially below 20% in 2027. Supply conditions for components may become more uneven, with DRAM supply likely to stay tight as AI server applications absorb advanced-process capacity. Trend Force concludes that the focus of the notebook market in 2027 will shift from whether sufficient components are available to whether consumers can absorb higher prices.
Source: TechPowerUp News · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing