Analysts warn the launch capacity crisis is more severe than expected. Quilty's Henry notes Blue Origin's New Glenn could accelerate, with conservative forecasts of 8 launches in 2028, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030, but production capacity for 150 upper stages annually.
The US military's national security launch program has two lanes. Lane 1 (higher risk tolerance) now includes Falcon, New Glenn, and Vulcan, with demand surging from 30-60 to 170 launches (2025-2029). Lane 2 (SpaceX and United Launch Alliance) increased from 54 to 79 launches.
This military surge wasn't in Quilty's calculations. Henry believes the US government will compel SpaceX to prioritize national priority launches, as SpaceX already builds satellites like the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator constellation.
Source: Ars Technica · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing