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China's launch surge fuels orbit debris concerns

Ars Technica •
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China’s launch cadence has exploded. After a decade of under 20 flights annually, the nation sent 64 rockets into orbit in 2022 and hit a record 93 rockets last year, making it the world’s second‑most active space power. State‑run firms and a surge of private launchers drive the growth, mirroring the United States’ recent surge. The surge also pressures ground infrastructure.

The rapid tempo raises a debris concern: China appears to forgo the long‑standing practice of deorbiting spent upper stages. Those discarded rocket bodies linger in low‑Earth orbit, adding mass that can collide with operational satellites. By contrast, the United States tracks roughly 57 metric tons of such debris, while Russia’s legacy stock sits at about 800 metric tons in similar altitudes.

Analysts warn that the growing inventory of uncontrolled metal fragments could strain collision‑avoidance systems and raise insurance premiums for satellite operators. While Russia’s debris load has plateaued and even declined as stages re‑enter, China’s unchecked accumulation suggests a worsening trend. Without policy shifts, Earth’s orbital environment risks becoming increasingly hazardous for all space activities. Regulators worldwide are watching closely.