Bill Barnwell, senior NFL writer for ESPN, identifies five teams likely to win fewer games in 2026. Following his Monday column on teams expected to improve, he now highlights the opposite side of the ledger. Since 2017, his decline column has gone 34-9, with an overall improve/decline record of 69-17 (.802). The average decline is about 3.4 wins per 17 games.

Last year, the column correctly predicted four of five teams. The miss was the Colts, who started hot but lost Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and finished 8-9. The Vikings dropped from 14-3 to 9-8, and the Commanders fell from 12-5 to 5-12. The Lions slipped from 15-2 to 9-8, and the Chiefs, despite a 10-0 record in one-score games, went 1-9 and missed the playoffs.

Barnwell notes the Chiefs and Lions are expected to improve in 2026, but he starts this year's decline list with a team from last year's improve column. The Chicago Bears, with an 11-6 record in 2025 and a plus-26 point differential, face a projected tough schedule. Head coach Ben Johnson called them the No. 1 regression candidate for 2026.

Other teams mentioned include the Broncos, Patriots, Panthers, and Jaguars, all facing potential setbacks based on data-driven analysis.