ESPN's analysis identifies Detroit Lions as the NFL's most likely worst-to-first candidate for 2026 with 38.2% odds to win the NFC North. The Lions ranked third in both FPI and DVOA last season despite finishing last in their division. Their favorable schedule and defensive injuries played significant roles in their surprising performance, making them prime candidates to reverse their standings.

The New Orleans Saints (19.3%) and New York Giants (11.6%) follow behind. The Saints benefit from coaching stability and a weak NFC South, while the Giants hope Jaxson Dart makes significant second-year improvements after a promising rookie season. Both divisions feature teams with similar talent levels, increasing the likelihood of a rapid turnaround.

Lower-ranked teams like the Titans (5.6%) and Raiders (1.5%) face steeper odds despite possessing young quarterbacks. The analysis shows NFL turnarounds often depend on quarterback development, schedule advantages, and improved health—factors that have enabled teams like the Patriots and Bears to make dramatic one-year improvements in recent seasons.