Seventeen NFL teams went over their projected win totals last year, while 15 went under. The Arizona Cardinals finished with just three wins despite an 8.5 over/under, and the Kansas City Chiefs won only six games despite a 11.5 projection. In contrast, the Jacksonville Jaguars exceeded their 7.5 total with a 13-4 record, and the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Seattle Seahawks each won 14 games despite 8.5 or 9.5 projections.

This season, nine teams are projected for double-digit wins, with the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens tied at 11.5—the highest in the league. The Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals share the lowest projection at 3.5 wins. Analysts offer their best bets: Matt Bowen backs the Cincinnati Bengals to go over 10.5 wins (+115), citing a healthy Joe Burrow, improved defense, and a favorable schedule.

Pamela Maldonado recommends the Miami Dolphins under 3.5 wins (+120), pointing to a depleted roster, weak receiving corps, and a tough schedule. Eric Moody favors the New Orleans Saints over 7.5 wins (-120), noting Tyler Shough’s development and an easy NFC South slate. Liz Loza supports the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 8.5 wins (+115) following a front-office overhaul.

Odds are from DraftKings and subject to change.