College football's offseason often involves predicting team performance, but surprises are inevitable. Bill Connelly of ESPN revisits teams that underperformed expectations in previous seasons and identifies potential bounce-back candidates for the upcoming 2026 season. While preseason polls and projections are made, historical data shows that a significant number of teams that improve substantially in one year tend to regress the next. However, the increasing use of transfers has accelerated roster resets, leading to more sustained improvements.

In 2025, a notable 24 teams improved by at least 10 points in SP+. Connelly anticipates that around 10 to 12 of these teams will continue their upward trajectory in 2026. He highlights eight specific teams most likely to build on their 2025 successes. Among these are the Texas Tech Red Raiders, projected