College football's volatility means even well-coached teams can't control luck. In 2025, Clemson and Baylor combined for a staggering 33-turnover swing from their 2024 plus-22 margin, falling to a minus-11 and going 12-13. Their preseason hopes evaporated purely from bad bounces, proving how quickly fortune can reverse.

Statistical models show this pattern is predictable. Teams with extreme turnover luck in one year—like the 14 squads with plus-5.5 or better in 2024—almost always see a major drop. Twelve of those 14 reversed in 2025, with their turnover margin declining by an average of 7.1. The same happened in reverse for teams with terrible luck, creating a clear mean reversion effect.

The same principle applies to close games. Using postgame win expectancy, 13 teams finished 2024 at least 1.5 wins above their "second-order" expectation. They combined to win 27 fewer games in 2025. Conversely, 15 teams that were unlucky in close games in 2024 improved by an average of 1.2 wins the next season.

Outliers like Texas A&M—who made the playoff despite the nation's third-worst turnover luck—and Indiana, which won a title after back-to-back seasons of excellent fortune, challenge the theory. But for most programs, 2026 will be a test of whether their 2025 results were sustainable or simply a product of randomness that has now run out.