Kiley McDaniel breaks down the 2026-27 MLB free agent class, projecting a total spending of approximately $2.65 billion, down 12.5% from last winter. Tarik Skubal headlines the rankings as the clear top free agent, with a strong chance to break pitcher contract records. The market is notably weaker than usual, with the Dec. 1 CBA expiration looming.
Before the last CBA expired, there was a flurry of activity or largely above-expectations deals. The four projected candidates from Japan's NPB and South Korea's KBO have already been posted, eliminating guessing about the posting window. Free agents are ranked by projected guaranteed contract size plus posting fee.
The qualifying offer (QO) of $23.15 million is noted for eligible players, as turning it down normally negatively affects their market. For players who signed last winter, projections anticipate about 9% more in guarantees, driven by players signing for fewer guaranteed years. The rankings begin with Tarik Skubal, projected for an eight-year, $352 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, averaging 44 AAV.
Industry insiders averaged eight years, $355 million for Skubal, with 59% of projections landing above the all-time pitcher guaranteed money record of $325 million (Yoshinobu Yamamoto). The all-time pitcher-only AAV record of $43.3 million, set by Max Scherzer, is also a benchmark. Seventy-eight percent of the panel predicted Skubal would sign before the likely Dec. 1 lockout, with the smart money landing a guarantee between $300 million and $400 million.
Over history, the total guarantee for the top market player tends to beat panel averages, landing just short of $400 million.
Source: ESPN MLB · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing