Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 13, 2026, 9:32 AM ET
Energy Markets & Geopolitics
Oil prices remained volatile around $100 a barrel as Middle East tensions persisted, with European stocks recovering slightly after news of an Indian tanker's passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The Hormuz blockade continued to paralyze commercial shipping, with vessel-tracking data showing no confirmed transits in 24 hours. This disruption has forced India's neighbors to seek alternative fuel sources, while Iran's new supreme leader vowed to maintain the strait closure. Meanwhile, the U.S. granted a temporary waiver allowing purchase of 19 million barrels of Russian crude already at sea, attempting to stabilize global supplies.
Central Banks & Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually, with economists anticipating further price pressures. Economists pushed back rate cut expectations to June from March, still projecting two quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned that market conditions mirror 2008, citing oil price spikes and private credit concerns. The spike in energy costs has complicated the path for Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, who faces a tough confirmation road if he advocates for quick rate cuts amid the Iran conflict.
Emerging Markets Under Pressure
Emerging-market stocks headed for consecutive weekly losses, the first back-to-back decline since October, as Middle East crisis showed no signs of abating. Indonesia warned it faces an uphill battle maintaining its 3% budget deficit cap as oil prices far exceeded initial assumptions. Nigeria's central bank prepared contingency measures to defend the naira as investors dumped riskier assets. South Africa's stock benchmark fell 10% from its February peak, while the rand faces potential pressure that could force interest rate hikes.
Currency & Safe-Haven Flows
The dollar strengthened to multi-month highs as investors sought safe-haven assets during the war. The euro fell to its lowest level since August amid broader dollar gains. China raised its yuan fixing for a record 15th straight week, showing continued support for currency appreciation despite Middle East volatility. Japan announced it would sell oil from national reserves at pre-war prices to help stabilize markets.
Technology & Innovation
China's BYD launched 5-minute "flash charging" technology, challenging established automakers Porsche and BMW by enabling EVs to charge almost as quickly as filling a fuel tank. Meanwhile, Silicon Valley's Andreessen Horowitz-backed startup plans to revive an abandoned Utah copper mine to test automated mining technology. The conflict has also boosted French defense contractor Exail Technologies SA, whose mine-destroying sea drones saw shares jump as Iran's closure of Hormuz thrust them into the spotlight.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
Dubai's real estate bond market faced potential collapse as the Iran war hammered investor confidence and threatened to stall borrowing. In contrast, India's Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust saw its IPO subscribed four times, signaling resilient demand for yield-focused assets. JPMorgan Chase secured a major Hong Kong office lease, marking one of the city's largest deals amid a prolonged commercial downturn.
Trade & Supply Chains
Thailand's economy faces potential halving of growth if the Middle East conflict lasts three months, hit by weaker tourism, softer exports, and higher energy prices. The war has also disrupted Thai rice exports to the Middle East, further straining farmers already grappling with rising costs. European natural gas open interest dropped to five-month lows as traders struggled with Middle East turmoil.
Corporate Strategy & Investment
Denmark's H. Lundbeck A/S plans to focus capital investments on US and China rather than Europe, citing pressure to incentivize innovation. India is setting aside $6.2 billion to help the economy weather global crisis impacts, while separately considering export relief measures. South Africa's Shapoorji Pallonji Group aims to raise $1 billion through its first dollar bond sale to refinance maturing local-currency debt.
Financial Markets & Credit
Additional Tier 1 bonds provided relative stability as investors hoarded them fearing future scarcity, enabling this risky bank debt to dodge the worst of the selloff. However, Bank of America's Hartnett warned that private credit concerns resemble pre-2008 conditions. The 60-40 portfolio strategy proved ineffective as stocks and bonds fell in tandem amid stagflation threats.
Regulatory & Market Structure
The UK government plans to overhaul nuclear regulation after criticism it was too risk-averse. Hong Kong regulators proposed naming and shaming lawyers and auditors for sloppy IPO work amid an influx of Chinese companies seeking to raise funds. The Hong Kong Exchange proposed looser listing rules to strengthen the city's appeal as an IPO venue.
Regional Developments
Turkey and South Korea are discussing joint nuclear power plant construction as Ankara diversifies energy sources. Serbia purchased Chinese supersonic missiles as part of $17 billion defense upgrades. Sweden boarded a second suspected Russian shadow fleet vessel, stepping up efforts against ships seen as security and environmental threats.