Thailand's economic growth could be cut in half if the Middle East conflict persists for three months, according to new analysis. The kingdom faces a triple threat from weakened tourism, softer exports, and surging energy prices that could drag growth significantly lower this year. Bangkok's economy, heavily reliant on international visitors and trade, stands particularly vulnerable to regional instability.

Tourism, which accounts for roughly 20% of Thailand's GDP, would suffer immediate setbacks as travelers avoid the region. The kingdom welcomed over 40 million visitors last year, but conflict could drive arrivals down sharply. Meanwhile, Thailand's export sector, already struggling with global economic headwinds, would face additional pressure as supply chains and shipping routes through the Middle East face disruption. Energy prices have already spiked, hitting a major cost for both businesses and consumers.

The timing compounds Thailand's challenges, as the economy was already navigating a post-pandemic recovery with elevated debt levels and slowing domestic consumption. Government stimulus measures may prove insufficient if the conflict drags on, potentially forcing policymakers to revise growth targets downward. The Bank of Thailand has maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, balancing inflation concerns with growth risks. Without a swift resolution to regional tensions, Thailand's economic outlook appears increasingly fragile.