Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Energy & Commodities Markets
Oil markets braced for lasting turmoil as Brent crude closed above $100 for the first time since August 2022, marking the biggest oil market disruption in history with millions of barrels trapped in the Persian Gulf. The escalating conflict has pushed institutional investors to buy US dollars at the strongest level in nearly two years, driving demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Brazil cut federal taxes on fuel imports to shield consumers from surging global prices while introducing a levy on crude oil exports to offset revenue losses, and Slovakia's top fertilizer producer curbed ammonia output as natural gas prices surged amid the Middle East conflict.
Financial Policy & Regulation
Banking regulators plan to ease some capital requirements for large US banks after the Fed and other agencies proposed loosening planned rules on how much capital institutions must hold, a move that watered down protections designed to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. The ECB's Villeroy sounded warnings about liquidity risks in private credit markets as semi-liquid vehicles attract retail investors, while the CME warned that US intervention in oil futures would be a "biblical disaster" that would erode market confidence. In regulatory moves, the CFTC offered guidance on manipulation in prediction markets, asking exchanges to engage with regulators before opening potentially vulnerable markets.
Corporate & Market Developments
Meta delayed rollout of its new AI model after spending billions to be on the cutting edge of artificial intelligence, while Ukraine's defense ministry made available drone videos for training AI models despite ethical concerns about using battlefield footage. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC is considering changes to rules governing S&P 500 inclusion that could fast-track SpaceX's entry after its IPO. Tether Holdings' Chief Investment Officer Richard Heathcote stepped down after overseeing a deals spree involving soccer clubs and humanoid robots, and Tesla was granted a license to supply electricity in the UK, threatening further disruption to the retail energy sector.
Market Disruptions & Credit Concerns
An exodus of money endangered Wall Street's private-credit craze as investors asked to cash out 14% of Cliffwater's $33 billion fund while Morgan Stanley capped withdrawals, reflecting how the Iran war has shattered decades-old hedging strategies. In retail markets, Buzz Feed issued a going concern warning after operating broadly at a loss since its conception and being burdened by legacy commitments, while Ulta Beauty expects growth to slow to 6-7% this fiscal year as consumers focus on value, down from 9.7% in the prior year. Jennifer Garner's snack company, Once Upon a Farm, fell 9.8% after forecasting slowing sales growth in its first earnings report as a public company.
Economic Indicators & Global Impact
New Zealand's economic recovery lost momentum in late 2025, highlighting its fragile nature before any impact from the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices, while Peru held its key rate at 4.25% after inflation accelerated above the midpoint of its target range for the first time in over a year. Brazil's soy shipments failed inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions to trade with China, and CF Industries hit record highs as fertilizer markets tighten due to the Middle East conflict threatening global supplies of nitrogen-based crop nutrients. The fallout from the Iran war and oil shock delivered another blow to the world economy, with countries already affected by trading order breakdowns, war in Ukraine, and chaotic US policymaking facing potentially lasting economic damage.