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Global Economy Faces Crisis as Iran War Disrupts Oil Markets

New York Times Business •
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The widening war in Iran has delivered a stunning blow to a world economy already reeling from trade breakdowns, the Ukraine conflict, and U.S. policy chaos. Mortgage rates in Kansas have climbed above 6 percent while gas stations in Vietnam and Kenya face shortages. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil choke point, has sent shockwaves through global supply chains.

Energy prices are surging across the United States, Europe, and Asia, affecting everything from food to semiconductors. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned this week that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could have "catastrophic consequences" for oil markets. Farmers from Spain to Canada are grappling with fertilizer cost spikes, while European chemical and auto industries face higher energy bills just as they recover from tariff impacts.

The crisis extends beyond immediate price shocks. Central bankers worldwide must navigate conflicting pressures as they decide whether to raise rates to combat inflation or lower them amid weakening growth. Tech companies, particularly those in AI, face heightened interest rate sensitivity at a time when a handful of firms have driven much of U.S. economic growth. The conflict also undermines recent theories about a neatly divided world of great power spheres, demonstrating that the United States still views itself as a global superpower willing to use military force for both political and economic aims.