Investors are dusting off the 2022 playbook as conflict in Iran rattles global markets, with energy prices surging and inflation fears mounting. Brent crude has jumped above $82 a barrel and natural gas soared to 2023 highs, triggering a 2% drop in global stocks and a historic crash in South Korea's Kospi. The dollar strengthened against every major currency as traders brace for prolonged Middle East turmoil.

Market strategists say the current situation mirrors the early days of Russia's Ukraine invasion, with similar patterns emerging in oil, bonds, and currencies. A New York Times report that Iranian officials had reached out to the CIA briefly calmed markets, but analysts warn the conflict could drag on. Citigroup strategists warn that a conflict lasting more than two weeks could push European gas prices to €100 per megawatt-hour, up from around €55.

Treasury yields have climbed as inflation fears erode the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates, while European bond markets are pricing out rate cuts entirely. Some strategists see potential for oil to hit $100 within a month and the S&P 500 to drop more than 10% if the 1990 Gulf War proves a template. With EU governments having committed over €500 billion in pandemic-era energy support, the stakes for Europe could be higher this time as Russia's energy remains off-limits.