Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil futures surged to $100 for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, triggering the biggest oil market disruption in history. Brent crude settled above $100 amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, with fertilizer stocks jumping on supply fears as shipments get stuck at the Strait of Hormuz. CF Industries shares hit record highs as nitrogen-based crop nutrient markets tighten, while Slovakia's largest fertilizer plant curbed ammonia output after natural gas prices surged. Residential heating oil prices in the U.S. surged above $5 a gallon, the highest since November 2022, as the war strains global diesel flows critical for home heating.
Fixed Income & Banking
The Federal Reserve and other regulators plan to ease capital requirements for banks, with Wall Street cheering proposals that would water down protections designed to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. The ECB's Villeroy sounded warnings on private credit liquidity risks as semi-liquid vehicles attract retail investors, while private credit funds brace for battles with banks over back leverage arrangements. Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates climbed above 6% again, undercutting recent housing affordability gains as inflation concerns roil financial markets.
Technology & Markets
Amazon seized a brief window for $54 billion bond sale as war in Iran intensified, with banks pitching the company as a safe bet in an increasingly unpredictable world. S&P is considering rule changes to fast-track SpaceX into the S&P 500 Index after its IPO, potentially accelerating the rocket company's market entry. The CFTC issued first guidance on prediction market manipulation, asking exchanges to engage with regulators before opening certain markets vulnerable to manipulation. AI's impact on software won't trigger wave of downgrades, according to S&P Global Ratings, which said the effects won't be severe enough to cause a sector-wide credit rating decline.
Geopolitics & Trade
Brazil cut fuel taxes to offset oil price surge while introducing a levy on crude oil exports, moving to shield consumers from surging global prices as the Iran war rages on. Some Brazilian soybean shipments failed sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crucial trade with China. The Trump administration is expected to launch a forced labor trade investigation into whether dozens of countries have policies to combat forced labor. Meanwhile, U.S. allies near China remain on edge as weapons shift from Asia to Iran, with regional security dynamics shifting as American military focus pivots to the Middle East.
Corporate & IPO Markets
Jennifer Garner's organic kids snacks maker Once Upon a Farm shares fell 9.8% after forecasting slowing sales growth in 2026 in its first earnings report as a public company. Madison Air filed for a $500 million Nasdaq IPO targeting a valuation buoyed by three consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth in the private aviation charter market. Tether's chief investment officer Richard Heathcote is stepping down after overseeing the vast reserves backing its main stablecoin and a deals spree involving soccer clubs and humanoid robots.
Market Volatility & Safe Havens
Institutional investors are buying U.S. dollars at strongest levels in nearly two years as Middle East conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets, according to State Street. Commodities hedge funds managed by Ron Ozer, Doug King and Steve Barclay reaped gains from volatility amid Iran war-driven price swings. Wall Street's $80 billion category of "buffer" ETFs faces its first major test as war spurs volatility, with bonds failing at their key job of cushioning stock losses. The CME warned that U.S. intervention in oil futures would be a 'biblical disaster', with chairman Terry Duffy saying government attempts to lower prices using derivatives would erode market confidence.
Regional Markets
Hilton Head Island seeks $35 million in municipal bonds to fund a new headquarters for firefighters, testing investor appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty. The Port of Los Angeles imports rose 3% in February as shippers brought in goods ahead of the Lunar New Year when many Asian factories pause production. Wells Fargo, Barclays and JPMorgan will split $110.8 million in fees for their work on the sale of UK asset manager Schroders Plc, one of the year's largest European financial services deals.