Donald Trump's administration has reversed Biden-era restrictions on LNG export approvals to boost US "energy dominance," but the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockage are undermining long-term demand. Since the war began in February, Qatar's LNG exports — previously a fifth of global supply — have been disrupted, driving the Japan-Korea Marker price from below $10/MMBtu to over $25/MMBtu. US exporters have ramped shipments to near maximum output levels, with exports rising 23 per cent in the first half of the year.

However, soaring prices are pushing developing Asian economies away from gas. India cut gas power generation by 25 per cent in Q2, increasing coal use. Thailand aims to install 5 gigawatts of rooftop solar for 1mn households to reduce gas reliance. Vietnam's Vingroup cancelled a $6.8bn gas plant, switching to solar, wind, and battery storage as battery costs plummet. Christopher Doleman of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis notes government strategies now envision a smaller long-term role for gas across Asia.

While US LNG profits surge short-term, the price shock accelerates the renewable transition in key growth markets, threatening the sector's long-term demand foundation.